cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Jim Meade / Iowa City
Senior Advisor

Soybean Prevented Planting Acres 2015

Here is an interetsing study by Prof Gary Schnitkey of the Universtiyi of Illinois giving an historical perspective on soybean prevented planting acreages.

 

He notes that most years, the upper midwest states have the higher prvented planting acres but this year they are well established.  It is the lower tier of states as has been posted here on many occasions that have high possible prevented planting acres.

 

He does not talk about prices.  He notes that a lot of acres can be planted quickly if conditions permit and farmers decide to.  He seems to conclude that we are likely to have a high number of soybean prevented platning acres but please read his report yourself and come to your own concluesion, don't rely on this summary.

 

http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2015/06/soybean-prevented-planted-acres.html

 

 

0 Kudos
6 Replies
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Soybean Prevented Planting Acres 2015

Jim what is the possibility that the PP dates get pushed back for the southern regions forcing beans to be planted in July for the 20 bu potential....?

0 Kudos
wglassfo
Veteran Contributor

Re: Soybean Prevented Planting Acres 2015

Could mean a lot of things if PP date is changed

#1 in my mind is the insurance folks lobbied hard, to save big dollars

#2 would be that somebody did some number crunching and decided the industry needed more beans

Possibly to keep export market share-for example

{20 bu. x 1 million more acres, it all adds up]

We all know what really high corn prices did to price of corn in later yrs

High bean prices would encourage SA to expand bean acres

Less market share for NA

Or: it could mean nothing, but I would think something, if PP date is changed

My guess it will not change, but what do I know

 

0 Kudos
Pat in CMO
Senior Contributor

Re: Soybean Prevented Planting Acres 2015

I don't think the prevented planting dates can be changed. That would be a breach of contract. Farmer has to sign a crop insurance contract by March 15th. Changing the prevented planting date after that would be a breach of contract.  Patrick

0 Kudos
Riverlandfrmr
Frequent Contributor

Re: Soybean Prevented Planting Acres 2015

I farm in NC, Mo. I have 400 ac beans planted out of 1400 intended. Last planted May12. We sent our seed back since they offered to refund our money last Wednesday. Too risky to plant this late cause PP will pay out $200-$235 ac. yes I have planted a lot of years this late but only in really good soil conditions. Also with a lot less expense. Seed costs and chemicals have soared now that we have Rndp resistant weeds and machinery and fuel play a role too. If we were able to get $12-$14 for beans then it would be enticing but $8.90 beans don't cut it. The other thing about planting this late is that other years we were trying to finish up and it would be a small percentage of our acres not the bulk and for some they have 100 percent to plant.
I know of 1 guy that planned on 6,000 acres beans and does not have 1 acre planted. Another had 2,800 and has 120 planted. Another had 2,000 and has 40 planted. The list could go on. We have chances of rain everyday through next Monday and the ground is muddy now.
0 Kudos
nitefarm
Advisor

Re: Soybean Prevented Planting Acres 2015

You are right the date has come and gone

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Soybean Prevented Planting Acres 2015

the scam called crop insurance ................ you loose it all $500-600 crop potential save only 1/3 the cost of the production and they get by with insuring only 1/3 of the loss.............

 

Sorry no oxygen can make you king of the obvious.

 

 

I don't type that bad had to correct twice......................

0 Kudos