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Soybean Spiking on Weather Concerns in Argentina?

Seems like soybeans spiking could be about too much rain in Argentina.  Dry Brazil isn't helping.

 

www.RainMakesGrain.com  i see has a few posts about tracking rains in SA.

 

5 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Beans and all grains just in a stair step Uptrend,

this could last the rest of 2016 too.   higher highs, higher lows etc etc etc..

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Honored Advisor

Re: Soybean Spiking on Weather Concerns in Argentina?

thanks milnesbcgioba,

 

Thought the marketing world had ended with those soybean prices..... 

 

come on everyone,,,,, push those chins back up and bring your lips together

 

We will all be ok.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Soybean Spiking on Weather Concerns in Argentina?

Big central Iowa Deere dealer had a reduction auction at the Farm Progress Show site a few weeks ago, I watched some of it and even bid on a piece of machinery online. I thought they got along pretty good considering all the bad press about how everybody was losing money farming. Not spending my kids inheritance just yet.

 

I went to some of those kind of sales in the mid eighties, it was fug-ugly back then a real financial blood bath. 

 

Well I didn't see it from the cheap seats, going to the eye vet soon,  They were expecting to come up a million dollars short of what they needed to meet what they had in it. The actual was three million short... 

 

Not sure many of these mega dealers can stand a three year sales drought and survive on lawn mowers and parts. 

 

Their overhead is in the stratosphere.

 

When you are depending on the bto' s and  their flip it programs, it is a house of cards.

Many are going in to their lender and like one asked what he had available, was told $500 an acre, period , it had to cover rent, crop expenses, machinery payments, everything.....he told the banker he had $400 rent alone on some of it. Can you say down sizing, and that is why some is still changing renters here at planting time.

 

Been reading different ag discussion boards, I just can not believe how giddy and excited some are to quickly contract this year's unemerged crop at or near their breakeven.  Probably the same ones the think DP is free.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybean Spiking on Weather Concerns in Argentina?

Hi Hobby, I went to that online auction that day, following your link, and really didn't

think there was a lot of bargains. I was going to post that the auction actually seemed

to go pretty good, and that times must be better than I was thinking.

 

Maybe from going to local Ritchie Brothers auctions, and online consignments such

as auctiontime, and bigiron, I have a pretty low idea of what stuff is worth. I think I bid

on a couple of planters that day, was looking to get a fairly new centerfill 24-30 and 

if my memory was right, there were a couple on that auction. There was a low acre

New Holland combine that I bid on a couple of times but it ended up bringing what

ones like it are bringing on the other auctions. My goal has been to buy things for about

40% of what the dealer was asking for them as that seems to be where the decent

value line lies.

 

This is (was) the time to be updating with used equipment, though, since once the 

dealers clear their excess inventory, they are not likely to fill up again as buying new

equipment with once a generation type prices is unlikely to happen again anytime

soon. If grain prices keep rising, the equipment for sale at fire sales is going to become

rare, too.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Soybean Spiking on Weather Concerns in Argentina?

There`s a couple dealers here locally both Red and Green that have a standard of living that they would fit in with the Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous tv show.  They are nice guys and everything, but holy buckets they must`ve been raking in the money over the years.  The one just bought 600 acres this spring and didn`t bat a eye, their inventory on their lots are a little less than a couple years ago, but they aren`t suffering. 

 

With these dealers anymore, they put up huge machine sheds to store farmer`s combines, they pack `em in there and in late August they take `em out and they go through the shop for the farmer...that must really be a money making racket.  But in many cases the farmer can`t fix it themselves and it`s just the "cost of admission" for farming.

 

And some farmers haven`t felt the pinch yet, some were sold forward and have yet to sell corn under $4 or beans under $9...and who knows if we are turning prices around a bit, maybe they never will be pinched.  They will have skated over the worst of it and going forward they`ll have lower inputs that better repressent commodity prices.  While others may or already have went broke over this.

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