Soybean acreage and the weather

[roarintiger1]

What am I missing here?     In the last report, intended soybean acres went from 89 million acres down to 80 million.  Coupling that with the PP soybean acres and the late crop, I wondering how soybeans didn't spend a couple of days limit up?

[BA Deere]

Buyers are on thin ice, pay a little now or a lot more later.It seemed farmers were willing sellers around here at the end of May figuring like Little Orphan Annie that "the Sun`ll come out tomorrow" to get their last 25% of beans planted.   That world stocks to use 31% has got buyers  fat, dumb & happy for now.

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/ht_charts/snd_cbt.pdf

[rickgthf]

Without getting political, before trump's big meeting with Xi last week, it was reported that one of the concessions trump made just to get Xi to agree to meet with him was to drop the demand that China buy "vast amounts" of agricultural goods.  In future, China would buy what they needed at their price, at their convenience.

 This was essentially confirmed in trump's press release when he said,  China had agreed to buy "agricultural goods", dropping the  "vast amounts".

  Now, just before the meeting the Chinese did buy 500,000 MT of soybeans but everyone understood that it was just a token "carrot" just to give trump something to feel good about.

  The fact is, the Chinese have got things just the way they like it.  They continue to buy beans from Brazil, Brazil seems to be able to supply all they need and now the Brazilian price is only marginally more than the US price, unlike last year.  The Chinese buy a token load every couple of weeks from the US just to remind the Brazilians that if  they try to squeeze them too much on price, they can always just go up the road and buy from the Americans, desperate to sell.

   The reality is, without the Chinese buying 25% of production, end users simply aren't overly concerned about supply, even with 10 million acres of PP, which there isn't.

[rickgthf]

On the other hand, come fall when the reality of mediocre North American bean crop become apparent and the ever possible dry start to the South American planting season, things could change very rapidly.

  I know I'm not expecting much from my late planted beans but maybe the MFP will at least cover the cost of planting, the herbicide & at least make a cover crop.

[timetippingpt]

Just had a 1.5 hour meeting with our state NASS statistician. The trade knows that the 80 mil number is quite bogus. NASS admits it is only what farmers intended to do on June 1. Lots happened after that date. I really haven't seen any PP soybeans, only PP corn, and the lots of acres of corn switched to beans. The trade knows the bean acreage number will be closer to 85 mil imo.  PLUS, the real kicker is the amazingly zero outcome of the meeting with Xi. They agree to buy "some" ag commodities, "sometime". Basically, we did not escalate and they did not give up anything. Why would a user of beans finds anything bullish in that scenario? 

The educated and well researched market players finished trading the bean acreage number about 1 second after they saw it. Probably just smiled as their corn puts were paying off big. 🙂

[fwain]

The Mrs and I took a drive today, July 4th, around several counties in northeast Indiana.  We saw a few soybeans perhaps six or seven inches tall but most are just emerging or perhaps two to three inches tall.  There are going to be a lot of twenty or twenty five bushels per acre beans this year. Jmho

[wrightcattle]

IF the USA harvests say 55 million acres of beans in 19.

[rickgthf]

 Lots of 20-30 bushel per acre beans, especially if it stays as dry as it is here now.  Three weeks ago, I thought it would never stop raining.  Now after three weeks without rain and some 90 degree days  we could use a little rain to get these beans up and going.

  How is it they say, "it never rains but it pours" and "it never rains when you want it to".