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Honored Advisor

Soybean market

I realize that, according to some very intelligent market advisers, we should be at $8.00 or lower right now.  Sorry for those who followed their advice.   However, it has occurred to me that we may have taken out a recent high in the $10.31 area.   Anyone have a gut feeling on where this is heading short term?   Bulls get Thanksgiving, bears get Christmas? Or......have the bears already gotten Thanksgiving, with this thing heading higher into Christmas?   Exports are still doing very well.....for now.    Thoughts?

 

Of course there is some guy on the other site claiming that we will have 6 million more bean acres next year.   Well, won't that just be special?

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9 Replies
Advisor

Re: Soybean market

I could never figure out why we got the corn/soy acres we did this year so I'm going to assume that the same will apply next year- not as big a shift as you'd expect. Could be wrong as the big margin advantage for soys didn;t really come on until late winter spring.

 

The one thing in the grain and oilseeds complex that is relaltively short supply is vegoil, everything else is plenty abundant.

 

So I still think that we're going to run a pretty hot crush pace for oil and meal stocks are going to build up.

 

Putting aside the nature of whatever the crazy business going on in China is about and SA weather, it is hard for oil to lead a soy bull market.

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Contributor

Re: Soybean market

Well, I'm confused.  Beans are higher now than I expected.  Will we get a massive SA crop and good oil production and drive pri cdes to $8?  Or will we get La Nina weather and great demand and reach $12?

 

I haven't done anything for 2017 and am totally confused at this stage.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Soybean market

This is a very bad time to have a bean rally, every Tom Dick farmer will order extra bean seed and plant *100 million acres next year hoping to stick a fat hog in the butt.   I supose net longs with traders, all the loose leaves fell off the trees and those that are crazy enough to turn down +$9 beans off the combine have welded their bin doors shut.  China wanting to "have hand" before a trade disagreement occurs are all factors.

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Advisor

Thanks Obama!

Surprise EPA announcement on renewable target for 2017 in the face of an already tight vegoil market set off the biggest up day in the history of the SBO market.

 

Anyway, still raptly interested in a time and place to sell meal. Fortunately it didn't give me the confirming price action to sell on the break.

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Advisor

Re: Soybean market, Higher

i imagine the naysayers get left in the dust cause we might not get to $16....but $15 ( local Cash Everywhere in the usa ) is very achievable now thru summer.

 

 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Soybean market

15 dollar beans , doubtful..Remember Capt Kirk!
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybean market

i too am in a quandry as to what to do with the soybeans......

wright.......what is your recipie for eggnog ???  how many parts nog to egg ?

our basis for beans now is over $1 a bu......i would be tickled pink to be able to get 15 per bu......BUT

if you look at the long range forecast maps....and they hold true......you might be more closer to being right

than wrong.

 

my thinking (but havent done anything yet.....i'm a good preacher....do as i say, not as i do), would be to "take a position", somehow

lock in a price.....how the best way to do this, i don't know anymore, i'm not jumping for joy to do at the elevator with such a wide

basis....and futures contracts.......that can cause you to loose hair faster than i already am...from full head of long wavy hair down

to your shoulders, to totally bald in a matter of a week......options.........the time value is just too much.

 

i guess the best way, like i said was take a position, and then keep rolling up

 

but, there is always that fellow in the back of the room, waving their hand with a question.............

 

guru el cheapo....why not just wait untill it's higher and then sell, you will save all that money you spent for options, or if

contracts, making margin calls when you start going under.

 

if the day theory is right.......then you are correct....waiting is the right thing to do........

 

but if not, and we fall to the magic $8 ((i shouldn't say much, our local bean market has an 8 in the frount already),

you will be a sick puppy.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Soybean market

Welp........another week, another rung up the ladder?    Or, will the start of a new month end the rally?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybean market

Well, I sold some Mar soybeans.  What do I know?

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