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12-11-2018 11:12 AM
China has been a big importer of U.S. soybeans in the past. It seems likely it is in China's interest to have a wide range of soybean sources so that it can use competition to keep prices down and so that it is not at the mercy of one source.
China is actively working with South America to acquire more soybeans there.
I'm making the assumption up front that China has some success (I didn't say how much) in diversifying it's soybean sourcing.
It brings up a couple of questions.
1. Is there any reason to believe that U.S. will ever again be in a position to rely on China (or any other country) to keep our soybean prices high? I say no. China will develop and exploit other sources.
2. If China relies less on U.S. soybeans, does China have as much ability to hurt the U.S. if China imposes a tariff on U.S. beans? One assumes the U.S. will be developing other markets or reducing production if China is not a reliable buyer.
3. Will the recognition that China has a near-term whip-hand on U.S. soybean prices mean a shift in production to corn, wheat and other grains in the U.S. or will we just take lower prices for our soybeans?
12-12-2018 05:15 AM
So....what is China's solution to the imbalanced trade with the U.S.? That's the question to be asked.
China needs to buy MORE U.S. soybeans to offset the trade imbalance.....not less.
12-14-2018 05:49 AM
If you produce far more than demand, you will get a lower price. I remain amazed
that beans are pushing $9. Bean prices are virtually 100% determined by supply.
Demand has been remarkably stable regardless of war, etc etc etc etc. Global
demand is not going down so nothing new under the sun. You plant acres the
market does not need and it will not pay for them after the fact, regardless
of product or market or grower or national border or religion or politics.
12-14-2018 06:44 AM
Due to climate change ( the climate does change 10,000yrs ago we were under a mile sheet of ice, it melted quickly and not because of lightbulbs) but we get either 80 bu per acre beans or 40, this year was 30 or 40 for some of us in NCIA. So going forward, nationally will the climate favor more 30s or more 80 yields? It seems the Dakoties get these big bean yields in places they never thought beans could be raised, let alone better yields than Illinois, plus the frost dates keep getting pushed back.
Farmers are always going to swing for the bleachers on yield, it`s the only thing that an individual can do to improve their odds of survival. Even poor ol` me, I prepaid my Pioneer beans like a good puppet, rather that go to the Albert Lea Seedhouse open house booking days. So, if record yields can happen due to the weather, we will get them.
Around here the 80 bushel per acre crowd, plants in April and has beans coming off 3 or more years corn on corn. I just wonder how the super studs in Brazil will keep up their yields beans on beans on beans and double crop beans, around here just a simple C-B rotation doesn`t get you top yields
12-14-2018 01:23 PM
My best soybean yields this year were beans-on-beans, same last year. Have a couple fields have rented for 10 years or so and never planted anything except soybeans, and they're always my best, or some of my best. Would plant corn, but fields are hard to access and tend to stay wet well into spring.