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Frequent Contributor

Soybeans the ONLY bull left in the ring?

Soybeans clearly appear to be the ONLY bull left in the ring right now. Lets recap what has taken place and what you need to recognize from the latest USDA numbers:

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  • Soy Yield lowered down to 41.2 bushels per acre vs. 42.6 last month vs. 44.5 previously. Yields are clearly tumbling, the question now is how far will they fall?  Many sources talking possible yield numbers in the high-30's.

  • Most ALL state yields lowered: OH yield -1% down to 49 bpa; IN -2 to -48%; NE "unchanged" at 47 bpa; IL down -1 to 46bpa; IA yield dropped -3 to 43 bpa; MI -2 to 43bpa; WI -2 to 40bpa; MN -2 to 39bpa; MO yield dropped -4% to 35bpa; ND -3 to 29bpa. 

  • Total production now projected at 3.149 billion bushels, down 106 million from last months 3.255 billion estimate. 

  • Demand balance sheet sees crush cut by 15 million bushels to 1.655 billion on lower meal exports and lower domestic meal consumption; Exports cut by 20 million bushels to 1.37 billion reflecting stiffer competition from South America and the drag from higher prices.

  • Ending stocks are now projected at just 150 million bushels, down 70 million vs. last months 220 million estimate vs. 265 million the previous month. 

  • Stock/Use ratio now at just 4.04%. The tightest since 1964/65. 

  • Global soybean production left basically unchanged at a RECORD 281.7 million tons. Thoughts are larger crops in South America are offsetting reductions in the US, Canada, China and Russia. 

  • Brazil's soybean production is now forecast at a NEW record 88 million tons, up 3 million on a 4% increase in acreage. This is up 6 million metric tons from last year and over 21 million metric tons from the previous crop year.

  • China soybean production is reduced 0.3 million tons to 12.2 million on lower yields resulting from excess rainfall and flooding in the northeast. If realized, this would be China’s smallest soybean harvest since 1992/93.

  • Average on-farm price of soybeans raised by more than $1.00 per bushel, from a $10.35 - $12.30 range up to an $11.50 - $13.50 range. 

*I should point out there is talk circulating that in each of the years USDA lowered their Sept soy yield by more than 1 bushel per acre (like yesterday's 1.4 bushel cut), they tend to lower the average yield again in the Oct report. In addition the final yield number tends to come in anywhere between 1.3 and 3.0 bushels per acre lower than the Sept estimate.

 

Courtesy of the Van Trump Report

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5 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: Soybeans the ONLY bull left in the ring?

Not much gain when bean futures go up 36 cents and basis drops 30 cents. The real market(cash) says beans only up 6 cents yesterday.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Soybeans the ONLY bull left in the ring?

SRW sales are amost off the charts. Apparently going for feed?

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Senior Contributor

Re: Soybeans the ONLY bull left in the ring?

Confused here, why would you tell me "what you need to recognize from the latest USDA numbers”.   

Practitioners and participants in these markets decide what to utilize, interrupt and handicap.

 

Nothing personal but why would you presume decide for others? Something belied in your tone here,  suggestive your views have some superiority.

 

=

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Senior Contributor

Re: Soybeans the ONLY bull left in the ring?

Mr Palouser, SEPT corn hit $450 friday, grend new contract low. Old crop season is over.  We did see extra SRW for feed use in JULY Aug, but that window is cloing as new crop corn comes in.

 

Forget futures and the evil CBT lets look at actual stats. World Wheat 2013/2014 is projected at all all time high, though less in degree than many expected. 3 yrs of wildig wheat prices incents planting and production and we sure are getting a response.

 

Has anyone run correlation, whayt might be the avg SRW price for 2013/21014 considering total starting supply is record?

 

Suppose someone is onlt 25% hedged, h9ow do they get aboard vs letting some cityfolk spec earn the premium melt?

 

TIA  

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Senior Contributor

Re: Soybeans the ONLY bull left in the ring?

This guy is an advisor ?

Called the top.

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