Anyone bearish O/C beans? If so, why? If no, why?
For the record, sold some July $1500 calls on Jan report day euphoria for $.92, .96, & 1.00. The lo, med, & hi of the day. My thought is I can have beans ready awfully close to that time frame. July close that day @ $15.27// $.96 on call.
Close yesterday, 3 weeks later @$15.59// $.844 on call.
I am not Mr Wizard on math, but it looks like the premium (Volatility?) is bleeding quickly. That sends bearish vibes to me.
How many that view this markets currently as selling opportunities will look back in a few months and see that they were really buying opportunities?
Corn will hit $7.50 per bushel by the time the planters roll....Soybeans will top $17.00
This advice is worth every penny you pay for it.
ever heard the old market saying ....."90% of all options expire worthless"?
the spread between the Mar/July beans has widened only slighty since the report while Jul/Nov spread has drawn in .33...............hmmmmm????????????
90 % of options expire worthless?
"ever heard the old market saying ....."90% of all options expire worthless"?"
Yes, I've heard of that and always thought it meant the people who bought options as a hedge - in effect as insurance - got what they hoped for. That someone who spent 30 cents on a put found the grain vaule didn't go down enough to make their 30 cents back.
Or, are you suggesting that 90% of options are bought as bad speculations? That these same people spent 30 cents on a call, essentially hoping to fill an inside straight, and the market went down instead of up?
And, I'd think that a straddle or some of those other exotic options products would guarantee a 50% amount would expire worthless but the other 50% might more than cover the cost.
Well, I'm confused by options, as always.