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Contributor

Soybeans?

Anyone bearish O/C beans?  If so, why?  If no, why?

 

For the record, sold some July $1500 calls on Jan report day euphoria for $.92, .96, & 1.00.  The lo, med, & hi of the day.  My thought is I can have beans ready awfully close to that time frame.  July close that day @ $15.27// $.96 on call.

 

Close yesterday, 3 weeks later @$15.59// $.844 on call.

 

I am not Mr Wizard on math, but it looks like the premium (Volatility?) is bleeding quickly.  That sends bearish vibes to me.

 

 

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4 Replies
Contributor

Re: Soybeans?

Change those closes down by $1.00 to $14.27 & $14.59.  DUH

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Senior Contributor

Re: Soybeans?

How many that view this markets currently as selling opportunities will look back in a few months and see that they were really buying opportunities?

 

Corn will hit $7.50 per bushel by the time the planters roll....Soybeans will top $17.00

 

 

This advice is worth every penny you pay for it.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Soybeans?

ever heard the old market saying ....."90% of all options expire worthless"?

 

the spread between the Mar/July beans has widened only slighty since the report while Jul/Nov spread has drawn in .33...............hmmmmm????????????

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Senior Contributor

90 % of options expire worthless?

"ever heard the old market saying ....."90% of all options expire worthless"?"

 

Yes, I've heard of that and always thought it meant the people who bought options as a hedge - in effect as insurance - got what they hoped for.  That someone who spent 30 cents on a put found the grain vaule didn't go down enough to make their 30 cents back.

 

Or, are you suggesting that 90% of options are bought as bad speculations?  That these same people spent 30 cents on a call, essentially hoping to fill an inside straight, and the market went down instead of up?

 

And, I'd think that a straddle or some of those other exotic options products would guarantee a 50% amount would expire worthless but the other 50% might more than cover the cost.

 

Well, I'm confused by options, as always.

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