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Veteran Contributor

Soybeans

I have couple questions about this years crop and numbers reported in last usda report on soybeans. I haven't read report or looked at numbers but have read highlights of the report and the record acreage. The first question is where all extra acreage from is it in high producing states with high per acre yields or is it upper northern tier area's where i am from where a 30 bushel crop is more average than failure to high producing states. Locally here i have seen more acreage of soybeans than ever before so i have feeling were bigger contributor to increase in soybean acres. Also this year soybeans are late here and have been hurt by cool wet weather and i believe were going to need exceptional weather to reach that 30 something yield for this year. My second question is that number of acres lost to wet this year has to be record so what are final harvested acres i believe that final number is going to be alot less than planted. also if acreage is more from norther tier what does that do to average yield its like baseball ad couple of 200 hundred hitters into mix with 300 hitters and team average goes down from 270 team average to 250 team average quite quickly. So this huge soybean crop could shrink quite a bit before its harvested and cheap prices may help consume even larger crop leaving us with not much of increase in end numbers or very little change. This even before we have any future weather concerns with this crop. This year seems from our perspective up here were experiencing much cooler summer than predicted temperatures have not been hot and were experiencing very cool eveinings with rounds of very cool temperatures coming down from the north. If this continues we could very well see a early frost this fall not late frosts we experienced last several years. My final questions when will market start looking at the numbers instead of trading the headline numbers how low will we have to go before common sense and people start to put some numbers together on this crop my guess some big players are have already begun this but there still hoping to drive market little further down to ride it back up when everybody over reacted to this report.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybeans

more imp, how the he!! do they get 44 bpa from 6 week drought last yr. during MOST imp develop phase?

 

could USDA all be illusion like rest of gov't - The "truman show"

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Soybeans

There is no doubt that the market is in the "Show Me" stance, and have been for a while.  They believe what the USDA is putting out, and, quite frankly at this point, the USDA may be mostly right.  There is nothing weather wise right now to hurt the corn crop.  Beans - still another story and although the beans are finally beginning to bush here, they are still a long way from canopy on most of the 30 inch rows.  And, quite short.  

 

Corn here is pushing tassels, as is my sweet corn.  My sweet corn has gone kinda crazy with 3 - 4 ears pushing on a stalk, and even one stalk I saw putting out another stalk where the ear is usually formed.  And of course, they are growing a bunch of suckers.  In addition, the stalks on our sweet corn are hugh.  I gotta take a picture and post it up on here.  

 

Anyway, every body's quiet because there doesn't seem to be a lot to fight about this year.  I personally still think that 165 final on corn is a bit high, but I was wrong last year, and I know our crop here overall looks better than last year.  My relation in Evansville, WI got a great couple of rains last week, and probably ended up with 2 inches plus on most of his ground.  Man - what more could you want going into pollination?

 

Jen

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