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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Soybeans

China again seems to have gotten their way when it comes to purchasing soybeans.  They have managed to take at least $2 off the price of U.S. beans due to the tariff threat.  It certainly would appear that this has played right into their hands.  Their method of buying soybeans and then canceling orders only to re-order at a lower level has worked many times to get the price lower. Our market traders are slow learners.

I also believe that they will continue to get U.S. soybeans into their country via whatever method necessary. They have it figured out that no matter how much money they pour into South America, much of that money is lost on corruption and they will still need to cover their needs from the U.S.       

 

What are your thoughts?

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12 Replies
futurestrader92
Veteran Contributor

Re: Soybeans

10$ soybeans, minus a 25% tariff puts them right around 7.50$ to be the same price as the brazilian and argentina soybeans. China is still avoiding buying US soybeans and I bet they play hardball on that through Midterms. It's a game of chicken between PRC and US to see who blinks first, unforunately since we reelect officials every few years, if they are willing to wait they may win this trade war. 

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illinifarmer
Advisor

Re: Soybeans

The corruption in the U.S. is worse than SA. Open your eyes we did this not China.
gurly3801539
Advisor

Re: Soybeans

According to market "expert' I talked with yesterday China is paying 1.60 to 1.80, when converted to bushels, more in Brazil than they would in the U.S. now.  Will or how long will they keep that up.  Is Brazil going to experience order cancelling.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Soybeans

Panamex  Cargo ship   -  7 holds  = shipment  of  @ 2million  + - bushels   -   @  $1.60   -   

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wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Where are they??? The beans that is???

Literally.

 

MO and AR for instance raise bout 9.4 million acres of beans i.e. For 2018.

( bout like IA at 9.8 million acres )

in 2017 MO averaged 49 bu per acre, AR was 51 bu per acre.

 

looking the afore at the drouth maps and it's going to be rather tough for those 2 States to average even close to 50 bu in 2018....matter of fact 30 bu avg might be a stretch.

 

further 4 of the top 5 soy production counties in both MN and IA have suffered severe wet this year.

 

all those counties produced over 10 million bu each in 2017.

2018.....the afore won't even produce close to 10m.....5m each is closer.

 

the problem with soy this year is the USA has a lot of Good soy production areas that are not going to produce good soy yields.

 

those negatives really add up strait across.

 

Btw, corn just ins adjusted in Chariton co MO went 0 bu per and some at 30 bu per.

chariton is 1 of thee top 10 soy prod cos in MO...how darn good the beans gonna be next to that corn???

well see.

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wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

It's not "official" yet, but China

Will have to buy tariff infected beans out of the USA drought.

 

jeez, 110 to 115 degree Fahrenheit heat in AR, MO, eastern KS thru Sunday of next week now.

heck the big dry just went to maybe some soybean hay and 0 to non existent bean yields on a pile of it.

 

also, not mentioned above is the big hole of beans gone out of NE Nebraska, SE South Dakota, SW Minnesota, and NW Iowa.  Bout 50,000 square mile of wet drown out there i.e. Half bean half corn rotation area.

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futurestrader92
Veteran Contributor

Re: It's not "official" yet, but China

Weather and Crop conditions have taken a back seat to tariffs and trade war news. Supply can shrink especially if Demand for US soybeans is reduced drastically with the PRC tariffs. 

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Soybeans

Price is secondary @ $10

Plenty of value , everywhere but the buzzard/vampires that infest the cbot
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wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Re: It's not "official" yet, but China

Even if the tariff reduces demand, China is still 15 to 20 million metric tonnes short of finding what they desire from other sources.

 

keep in mind the afore is after filling 15 to 20mmt with product substitutes from other sources.

 

also I'm not so sure substituting so much product is actually going to work out successfully.

 

say total USA product to China is 40mmt now.

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