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rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Speaking of playing with fire, ...

These fertilizer producers are play with fire at these fertilizer prices.   I can make a lot more money with $13 beans than with $6 corn when fertilizer is $1000 per ton delivered.  If these fertilizer prices don't come down soon I won't have any choice but to let somebody else raise corn this year.  In about two weeks, I'm going to start selling Nov. 22 beans, like it or not.

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11 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Speaking of playing with fire, ...

Why, what are your corn & bean yields?   Here, corn has the clear edge.

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erikjohnson61y
Veteran Advisor

Re: Speaking of playing with fire, ...

Here's my corn math:

APH 169 bu/ac (South Dakota). $5.50 expected new crop price. $930/ac revenue at APH

Seed $70
Chemicals (Staunch, Atrazine, Glyphosate burndown) $30
MAP 110# $910 = $52, Potash 170# $800 = $68, S 10# $.64/lb = $6.40, Urea 260# $970 = $126, Total = $252
Fuel 5gal/ac x $2.75/gal = $14
Taxes $21/ac
Repairs and Supplies $35/ac

Total Costs $422

Gross profit before depreciation, interest expense, living expenses = $508/ac.

Substitute rent for property taxes on my rented ground and it's $379/ac.

As I told the neighbor kid who's just starting out, it's still nicely profitable, you're just handling a whole lot more money than you used to. I'm just not swinging for the fences this year - just trying to hit my APH.

One extra note - cost of chemicals for corn (staunch, atrazine) haven't moved that much. But weed control for beans is through the roof this year along with fertilizer. Paid $61/gallon for Liberty, $53 for EnlistOne, $26 for generic 41% glyphosate, $52 for volunteer, and $36 for Dual. If you go with a 3-pre program too, you'll spend more on chemicals than seed in beans!

Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Speaking of playing with fire, ...

Urea took a dump again today.

-$80 ton

Might be a little early to count out corn?

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rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Corn is King in Southern MN

200 bushel corn trumps 50 bushel soybeans. This has always been corn country, and the high price of fertilizer is not going to change that. You can drive around and see a lot of cornstalks that already have had NH3 tanks pulled on them. I am not doing any corn on corn for 2022, but a lot of neighbors are.

I always remember what my late father said that my grandfather once said about not growing corn here....he said that you might not grow corn one year, and if you didn't, you would not have to worry about growing anything the next year.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Corn is King in Southern MN

Look at Erik`s fertilizer budget of $252/acre very realistic.  But let`s say $300/acre, that ain`t that bad $150 more than last year when there was a real prospect of corn having a 3-handle.   Corn a solid $1-$1.50 higher and 200 bushel yield, I won`t complain about fertilizer prices at these levels so long as my gross revenue is $200 to $300 higher.

But Liberals, they want cheap fertilizer AND they also want to jawbone crop prices down as well "rain in Brazil!  Big crop in Brazil!  Early planting in US! Monster crop coming!  Prices gonna crash and farmers gonna go broke Har Har Har"  Goll Dang it, I want small crops and BIG prices!   🙂   less trips to town and Mo money! 

ddtfarm1
Veteran Contributor

Re: Corn is King in Southern MN

BA, I assume you are trying to troll SD with your last comment, or the Covid has got you suffering delirium. Made no sense at all!! 

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erikjohnson61y
Veteran Advisor

Re: Corn is King in Southern MN

LOL - the liberals want the government to provide cheap (or free) fertilizer that doesn't have to be mined because mines are bad and doesn't have to be transported in trucks made of steel burning diesel because all of that is BAD!!!!!

I do hope that more producers will do like me and not swing for the fences this year, so we get an "average" crop, and the higher prices can last a little longer this time. I used to work in the oil field, and they have a saying: "Dear Lord, please let there be another oil boom. I promise not to piss it all away this time!!!"

rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Right now, my rough profit on corn or beans is ...

... is just about the same, $400 per acre but my investment for corn is 6-7 x higher.  Who in their right mind would gamble an extra $300 per acre more for the same potential profit.

  I just don't see it.  And apparently, I'm not alone around here anyhow.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Right now, my rough profit on corn or beans is ...

You didn`t say what your yields are.  If the sun rises in the east I can bank on 200 bpa and maybe 240 whole farm.  On beans if the stars line up 60 possibly 75 whole farm, however they could struggle to make 40-45 also.  And a hail call the insurance agent.   Right now I could lock in $1000 to $1100 with corn ....beans ????  I`ll tell you what they gross November 1, 2022.    Corn pays bills!