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Veteran Advisor

Spring planting rally

whats the consensus on how high the normal spring planting rally will take December corn and November bean futures? My guess is about $4.25 on corn, and $9.75 on soybeans. Spring will be here before we know it.

 

Also, what kind of fools give the grain to the end users under PLC and ruin the chances for a better rally? Lots of that going on as grain is needed and people want a better price. Just about as smart as negotiating with terrorists.

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10 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Spring planting rally

The kind that need $$$ to pay bills?
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Spring planting rally

PLC is price later contracts....they don't give you any money to pay bills...all they do is to prevent grain rallys.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Spring planting rally

Ok. I was thinking PLC the gov program. So I now see what your saying. Can't answer that question
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Senior Contributor

Re: Spring planting rally

I used to use them alot, simply because all my grain was in the elevator and I could get a much better storage rate.  I quit a few years ago when a near by elevator declared bankrupcy.  Anyone who had defered price or defered pay contracts got F----KED since they had given up their right to the physical grain.  Guys on simple storage got there corn back.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Spring planting rally

I think Dec corn at $4.25 for a spring high is about right, although it may only be an intraday price.  November beans I'm less bullish for a spring high, maybe $9.25?  Depends how the dry areas shrink or grow in South America.  I expect better pricing opportunities in July / August, but I'm planning on pricing some new crop on any spring rally.

 

To your second point, I have no idea why someone would haul out of a bin now for "free" (no storage charge) delayed pricing, unless they just are too big for what they can haul and have to be hauling now to get it all done.  I don't know that it effects the futures price all that much, because the grain is usually is moving right to an end market as soon as it's dumped.  But I do believe it has a big impact on basis.

 

Locally the only free DP offers are for spring wheat and soybeans, and spring wheat basis has widened 20 cents since that started.  So I'd assume they are getting more wheat on that offer than soybeans.  For free DP on corn, we'd have to go to the next ring of elevators farther away.  I did see that one is offering free DP for corn with an up to $2.00/bu advance at the time the contract is signed.  I'm sure there are people who see that as a "good deal", better at least than talking to the banker about extending loans.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Spring planting rally

Closing commentary

 

By Gary Cleland      

Appears more corn covered up than trade thinks, corn had highest close of the year, to close out only Jan....while beans and meal had impressive rally from previous day down side debacle, or perceived debacle by some, me, and today proved those, me, wrong. Making two week lows will do that to an opinion. An impressive close today for the complex to close out the month and corn as well.  With corn short almost halved from previous COT report and what trade assumptions just 3 days ago, obviously not as much needs to move out of the way as thought on a further rally and, the farmer seems bit more comfortable  selling on higher prices.  See how it lays out, as predicting price action vs this report is a rather inexact science.  End of the month price action should not be forgotten either.  Is there more to come, or a gasp to the finish? 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Spring planting rally

"gasp to the finish"     Ha.......lots of time to sell old AND new corn yet. 

 

My thinking is that end users should be buying all they can, as soon as they can, and.....as cheap as they can.   Smiley Wink

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Senior Contributor

Re: Spring planting rally

My dad always cleans out bins that are not contracted as soon as there is "free storage" on at our local elevator.  He figures most of that grain is going there eventually anyway, so just as well do haul it when we have time, then if there is a rally just make a phone call and its done.  And you don't have to worry about bins going out of condition.  He also wants all his bins empty by June.  (his strategy, not necessarily mine) 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Spring planting rally

I`m not monkeying around pricing anything this spring, next July corn is going to $6...maybe $7, then I`ll cash in Cha-ching!  But, don`t spread this around, it`s our little secret.

 

http://www.agweb.com/article/weather-expert-predicts-6-corn-naa-anna-lisa-laca/

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