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Veteran Advisor

Still a lot of confusion and uncertainty about what actually is in Phase One.

  There still seems to be a lot of confusion and uncertainty about what actually is in Phase One. 

The Chinese are being very quiet about the actual terms of Phase One.  In particular, the Americans are using numbers like $50 billion, $16 billion over 2017's $24 billion. In contrast the Chinese seem to be using a $5 billion number (unsubstantiated Asian news reports).

  Other analysts are more skeptical as well.  For example, "The fighters have retreated to their corners and may not return to the ring," said Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute at The Wilson Center.  "The Trump administration is calling this 'Phase One' of a trade deal with China, but there is little reason to expect a phase two or three," he said. "The Chinese side has already won a respite from continual American threats and appears to have done so without offering any terms it wasn’t prepared to give in 2017."

  I guess this explains why there wasn't a bigger pop in either the stock market or the soybean market.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Still a lot of confusion and uncertainty about what actually is in Phase One.

The grain traders are not in any hurry to take these markets higher and will only go there kicking & screaming.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Still a lot of confusion and uncertainty about what actually is in Phase One.

The market will rally as soon as the farmers are done selling their grain for cheap to the funds that are short letting them out of their shorts for little or know rally rinse and repeat.