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Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,329
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Still have our hands in the air

[ Edited ]

Seems another 261,000 metric tons of soybeans just got taken off the shelf again....

 

9,570,000 million bu

 

23 1/3 unit trains full

 

31 miles of train cars...

 

The great soy robbery of '16 is still in progress...

Advisor
Posts: 9,775
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
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Re: Still have our hands in the air

I think that unusually high early season offtake was anticipated due to the depletion of SA stocks.

 

What wasn't known was if we'd have plenty- that still isn't entirely known but now highly suspected.

 

A lot more private analysts coming to the conclusion that USDA's 87 mmt China import number is plenty ample and if it is and you add a few to US production the S & D loosens up considerably more.

 

Assuming crops finish and get harvested, the next interesting inflection point may be the acreage mix in SA. Both ARG and BRA are expected to increase corn acres but I wonder what and how the market is going to incentivize- whether that turns out to be a bid for acres or a race to the glue factory.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,329
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Still have our hands in the air

Brazil and Argentina had plenty....till they didn't...

Advisor
Posts: 9,775
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
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Re: Still have our hands in the air

Yes, and it created a nice little selling opportunity for anyone so inclined. I wonder what sort of rally we would have gotten off the false weather model runs had ARG and BRA not been trimmed at the end.

 

The markets will rise again, the question is when and from where.

 

 

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Senior Contributor
Posts: 564
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: Still have our hands in the air

The local Coop got the last of my 2015 crop yesterday.  I didn't even ask what the the price was.  I can put my hands down now.  Storage cost will take a good junk of that check.  

 

Not as bad as the story of a farmer in the 1930's who shipped some hogs to the Chicago stock yards and he got a letter informing him that the sell of the hogs did not pay for the shipping and that they needs some more money.  He wrote back explaining that he did not have any more money but he that he had some more hogs! Smiley Surprised

Spoiler
 
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,990
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: Still have our hands in the air

consider...............

 

the CME bunch thru the market.......and thru the futures market, tell you what the market wants you to plant........

 

so.........who should be taken to the state hospital first..........the traders.....who know nothing about crop production,

milling, etc  (read "just about everything")

 

or us, for listening to them, and doing what they suggest.............

 

 

((my room is on the third floor, corner room with two nice windows....one overlooking the garden, the other the incinerator.

nice neighbors....one has multiple personalities....so i always have someone to visit with))

Advisor
Posts: 583
Registered: ‎06-03-2010
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Re: Still have our hands in the air

Can you say Argentina, rinse, repeat.  Just replace Argentina with Arkansas, with more area's to follow.  #Itisn'tinthebinyet

 

https://twitter.com/capps_chuck/status/766732165732179969

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,659
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Still have our hands in the air

nice link Jec22

 

Hobby keep in mind,  we are selling 2016/17 crop year beans, which already had a 23mmt increase in usage figured in........ and is obviously well beyond expectations at these prices..

 

But then again you know that...

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,329
Registered: ‎01-10-2012

Re: Still have our hands in the air

This crop is not harvested yet in this country

 

Ask Argentina, French, German and US Delta farmers how rain and mud works out.

 

Flooding in north central Iowa last night and its wet wet wet in many other places too.

 

This is the wettest drought on record...weather people missed this to the tune of 180°.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,990
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: Still have our hands in the air

The drought talk just might have been 9 to 12
Months off tho.....that's the worry for next year.