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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

StoneX 176.9 & 50

I think we`ll be picking corn early this year and if you chop silage, after Labor Day might be getting late. The beans are hurting, even under pivots.  90°s into and past the weekend, if you`re lucky 1/4" rain in bits & pieces.   Maybe those still holding old crop`ll be the "old maid", but a rich old maid at that   🙂

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13 Replies
rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Re: StoneX 176.9 & 50

BA, I will soon have all the grain gone from my farm for the first time in many years. When you have an inverted market, you need to clean out the bins, and if you are bullish ...buy the grain back on the board.

I am not that bullish, but I do believe in taking the extra $ that an inverted market offers.

Right now, our local unit train elevator is shipping corn to Mexico and paying 50 cents a bushel more than the ethanol plant.

I would hate to be a corn grower in Mexico...can you imagine the insect pressure, as well as climate?

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: StoneX 176.9 & 50

Corn - The 2021 U.S. corn condition declined 2% last week to 62% rated good and excellent.

Six states indicated that the corn condition improved last week, and 12 states indicated that the corn condition declined last week.

Most of the improvements were found in the eastern Corn Belt while most of the declines were found in the western Corn Belt.

The top five rated corn states are: Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

The five lowest rated corn states are: North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and Kansas.

The area of greatest concern continues to be the northwestern Corn Belt where the corn in North Dakota is rated 18% GD/EX (down 3%), South Dakota is rated 32% GD/EX (down 2%), Minnesota is rated 36% GD/EX (down 2%), and Iowa is rated 62% GD/EX (down 3%).

Think about this a minute.

The first three  top rated states are fringe area states pretty far down on the % of national corn production.

The troubled states have two of the top four states in terms of pure production bushels. The other three are a larger production % than the top five put together.

Might be a lucky thing we have a few carry over bu.

USA and Ukraine are the two stores with anything much left on the shelves.

Are we gonna get to price gouge or let it go for a reasonable profit?

 

.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: StoneX 176.9 & 50

Stone's numbers on corn has the cornbelt states raising around 13 billion bushels.(If you believe them)   Does the rest of the country raise the remaining 2 billion needed to supply the demand?   

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jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: StoneX 176.9 & 50

You forgot New Jersey.   Seems to me, some years ago, those trying to suppress the price of corn, brought up the great crop they had in New Jersey.   And, short of that, there’s always those boat loads of corn and soybeans, parked off our coast, just waiting for prices to spike, so we can ship them in.  

You farmers are a gullible lot.  Played year after year.   And everyone here knows, that no one sold ANY corn or beans before last fall and the “flash drought” and Iowa’s infamous derecho.   Yep - everyone here does a perfect job of marketing - just ask ‘em - or - maybe you don’t always have to ask.

Jen

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wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

You got it Jen

Stone is Bearish thus have a liar bear agenda 

Don't forget the big corn in say Fairbanks. LoL. 

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Blacksandfarmer
Veteran Advisor

Re: StoneX 176.9 & 50

Hobby, not mentioned was the little "I" state. The Indiana crop looks really good. I haven't been through Illinois lately, but I would imagine that crop is looking good as well, given the timely rains. 

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wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Chopping Dakota

Might be Sept 1st part... If the weather playS lucky  .

Boy just a 50 mile strip wide on good dirt that's gonna crank some 200 bu corn with luck now.  

Normal is 300 bu.   Same land. 

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: StoneX 176.9 & 50

I saw a crop rating by state and Indiana, Ohio are the winners.  Illinois a little better than usual,  Minnesota Dakotas worse, Iowa a little worse.  Chip Flory was talking with an analyst who with a decent crop and continued usage, exports ect we`ll be looking at a 900 million bushel carryover...that`s million with a "M"...pipeline.

What i think is endusers, including China quietly got covered through September and are hoping to fill remained of needs to off combine sales.  And send trolls out on social media with early harvest yield monitor shots of "300 bushel"  "Beeeeeeeetter than expected!!!".   That will buffer the deserved ration prices that they really should be paying,  +$8 corn in Europe and South America...the US is the TJ Maxx of the world corn retailers.  

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: StoneX 176.9 & 50

Jenny u were close.

Maryland was the state that year.

Basis for cash sales went to $1.01 day before yesterday at Eplant.

About 40 cents better than piggy feed grinder and the train loader.

Got a call from a salesman, said my new pickup was in. (At least one he'd like to trade me into. )

My ol beater I'm driving now is getting up in miles, maybe I need to consider making a few trips to Eplant?  $6.50ish isn't a bad price, twice as good as last year at this time.

If this thing falls in might be nice to have a decent set of wheels going in? Its deductable so it's OK right?

Whatya all think?

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