Stop thinking about demand rationing and.........

[jrsiajdranch]

Start thinking about demand shock and AWE! 

Just using my farm and it's poor crops I fooled around last night and came up with a national crop of 7 billion bu.

This is almost half of what USDA said we would have. 

This means that no matter the price somebody ain't getin corn. Doesn't matter if they have the money or the mandate somebody just flat out ain't gettin none.

I for one do not believe in man made global warming. But lets just say it is true.

This year proves the falicy of using a finite resource (corn ) for Fuel.  If we have now entered into a time when crops will be more harshly affected by weather extremes than why do we have such a foolish use for the main feed stock of our livestock?

We basically need to find away to shut down 1/3 of our corn usage for the next 18 months. Just so we do not run out for the 2/3 that is left. 

Here in Iowa they will not release CRP for haying until after Aug. 1 even if they do then. By then there will be no feed value left anyways so why bother.  SO the CRP isn't gonna fill the gaps. 

SO what should we do?

Make it fair and have 1/3 reductions in each segment? 

I do not have the answers only lots of questions. 

If you guys are thinking that corn has lots of room to the upside realize that the PHYSICAL and NOT the PRICE will be doing the rationing. IF Corn was 2 bucks it wouldn't matter casue you can not buy what isn't  there.

[hardnox604008]

Hi JR,

When I was in IA briefly a coupla weeks ago, noted lots of pres political ads on TV- IA is in play as a swing state (we're not so much) and thus I'd expect that anything unpopular in regards to ag policy will be avoided until after the rerection.

Just a little mouse in the corner having a little schadenfreude from watching folks hyperventilate over the failure of public policy that I'd always said contained the seeds of its own failure.

[redrotor]

Finite resource? Coal, oil, yes. We'll plant more corn... and we'll plant more corn into eternity. Just because you can play with numbers to  make a tough year even worse than it is, doesn't mean the end of the world is near. I'm at 73 days and only .2 in. of rain. I know what bad corn looks like, but I'm keeping a level head and thinking rationally. And I am self-insured. Cheap feed is not a God given right.

[BA Deere]

Farming is a schizophenic business, Jr.    If there`s a $1/hd profit in raising hogs and a 1¢/cwt in selling milk, some wiseacre will get the bright idea to raise 800 bazillion mazilion of it and make 800 bazillion-mazillion dollars.  In the ideal world, people would pay enough to cover the farmer`s cost at the supermarket, but it`s like pulling teeth to get the price of hamburger to go up a dime.  A $4 box of cereal has 10¢ worth of corn and if the price doubles and they have 20¢ of corn in the box Kellogs with raise the cereal price $1 and scream "bloody murder!".    If grain prices are high there will be land rent auctions with some bids made with the sole purpose of controlling the land, not making a profit "$300...$400...$500...Oh I`ll give $535!!".  But somewhere down the line the consumer that doesn`t bat a eye at paying $45,000 for a new car will have to come to grips with paying a little more for food.  Of course if we get used to better prices we`ll bid it all away at a land auction or put up more building and over-flow the grocery store with meat and milk.  I don`t mean this rant to sound like a old NFO commercial, but this is just the nature of this business.   and oh yeah, Romney 2012!

[frankne]

 Here i thought you were all gods  country over there.How much other corn looks like you were chopping?

Girls getting married week from sat. long range said a high of 89, dam near have to get the coats out for that.

[jrsiajdranch]

OK red you tell me what number you are using? 

As to the finite thingy I was using the logica of the groups who proposed the whole reason for the idea in the first place.

Global warming will casue catastrophic damage to our eco system including higher temps and lower percipitation, Which will lead to rapid reductions in vegatative growth around the globe.

SO lets throw ourselves into a policy that requires more vegatative growth?

WTF?

[jrsiajdranch]

BA you missed the point.  THe price isn't gonna matter!  There is no supply at any price!  And unlike croppers who just can let their crops die. Livestock guys get hauled to jail for that!

( Oh that last sentence will be a fire storm)

[dennymal]

I think you're exaggerating way to much here JR-There will be corn for sell just at a price thats not profitable for some endusers. Our crops are dying not because of our choice but because of an event that no one could see or predict. No ones stopping you to take your cows to market. Farming is a business and just like other corps you need to periodically evaluate what makes the most money.

[vandenplas]

 I am not familiar with rerection.  Did you mean erection? 

[kraft-t]

Jr. That is like saying that you can't hire americans to do your work. There are already americans working for someone else. Compete for them and hire them away from someone else.

The same way with corn. If you think supplies are limited, bid up and lock your needs in first. This is capitalism at work. Supply demand with price determined by willing buyers and willing sellers.

If you want to challenge the use of corn production for ethanol, why are you challenging other corn uses or other crop production for not being planted to corn. Alcoholic beverages would be my first challenge. Shut down the breweries and the distillers. Tell them cotton farmers to rise corn on those acres or vegetable growers to raise corn.

I figure my acres are mine to control and I can plant it to anything legal and sell the produce to be used for any purpose. What ever is the most profitable. The same with your milk. If you could sell your milk to a plastic company for more money, would you sell to a local dairy for less? Would you urge that the plastic company be shut down?