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Contributor

Store your corn, cover your hedges.

 Corn will be much higher next spring and summer. Demand is good, stocks are not, other sectors will not be as attractive as commodities.  Here in  Central IL. I just walked out in a field that has looked good all year. (One of the few in this area). Excellent soil type, gently rolling, pattern tiled, planted early. Has been green since it came up, now it is starting to fire, it will be well below my expectations. This is absolutely the worst crop I have ever seen in this high producing area. My dad has seen worse, a drought in 1977.  $8000+ farms have taken preventive planting, many fields will struggle to make 80bpa. May struggle to make 50 when they usually make 220. It would appear that it is "our turn" although monsoon type rains have landed all over the cornbelt. This year in my opinion, the corn WILL NOT MAKE TREND. My dad told me a long time ago cool summer nights help make good corn. We have had several lows in the 80's! I suspect that even the fantastic looking areas will be slightly disappointed. This is my opinion, I am entitled to it. Historically, I am a bear.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Store your corn, cover your hedges.

I know we all get excited on weather markets! Your yield estimates of 80 or below is panic driven. Your yields will be higher than that! It doesn't take a lot to make 150bu/acre on your ground.  It won't take a lot of yield loss to make a Bull market in the commodities. I'm thinking if the summer weather pattern that is established now continues we could see Beans in the teens again!

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Senior Contributor

Re: Store your corn, cover your hedges.

e wave patterns point to 4.50 plus corn and 12.00 beans. i will have some 200 plus corn and a small plot(20 acres, experiment, coc, )that will struggle to hit 100. i just cant help myself with the experiment thing, d7

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Contributor

Re: Store your corn, cover your hedges.

Yes, you are correct "panic driven". I by no means meant a whole farm average of 80, but certainly whole field averages of 80 with the poorer, yellow, stunted corn that is prominant in this area this year. I was trying to make a point that there are some pathetic fields of corn for this area. Lots of them. The 200 bu fields are few. There are corn on corn fields where 15% or more of the field is bare, the rest is tassled at four to five feet tall and yellow. Looking horribly worse everyday.  Funny you mentioned 150 as I was figuring out my grain storage for this fall today, 150 is the yield that I figured.  

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Senior Contributor

Re: Store your corn, cover your hedges.

fwiw the crop is a composite one  a nearby farmn or area doesn't set the US yield.

 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Store your corn, cover your hedges.

Oh Really? HaHa! Your so smart. And your're thinking that the composite is?

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Contributor

Re: Store your corn, cover your hedges.

the composite is 75% G/E a rating reserved for mostly record production years

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Store your corn, cover your hedges.

The Ratings may turn out to be correct! Early planted corn has higher test wieghts as apposed to last year. 59 lb test weight as apposed to 53lb test weight will show more yield in the end. 185Bu/acre equals 205 @59lb test wieght. Same volume more lbs. a 10% increase in yield due to higher test weight

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