Sub 150 bu market?

[arnfarm735]

Curious about dividing the corn subsidies $$ by the number of corn farmers and dividing the milk subsidies $$ by the number of dairy farmers. Then comparing those two figures instead of just raw groww dollars.

[jrsiajdranch]

I do not know that averages would give the full story.  To many ways to game the system for double dipping. But I'll bet EWG could do it some how.

[rightone]

higher as the crop failure spin specialists might think.

Lose volume, you lose interest,  Less always amounts to less, less never is more.

Econ will just sympathize E down to the $60 to $70 crude O converted price level which unfortunately could be 20 to 30% less price for corn in said conversion.

Perhaps folks should be carefull what is wished for now times. 

It can turnout the exact OPPOSITE of what previous more supposedly normal times supposedly equated to.

[Artifice]

You may be new to this Palouser. Markets involve price vs fundamentals  not just fundamentals-   IE SRW, world wheat can be snug, but it is price’s job to make things adjust, they did and it drops 3.50 not including cost of carry.

WhenEgyptbought in panic they were not shrewd buyers but dumb. They are not good timers,  but bad and are very poor.

You think corn yield is 150, it may be 145 or 162. You don’t know, didPakistan’s wheat get killed because some irrigation was lost? NO, you just needed to think so.  We have hurt corn demand already, feeder supply will be way down in 3-4 months,   it may be thin air and INDEX length keeping corn at 7+.

Do you expectChina’s corn imports to triple tpo 6 MMT? Is that big in a world that produces 900 MMT ?

World W stks are projected higher in the last WASDE, lying again ? Who pays the carry on 188 MMT ?

[justinbarnes710]

Artifice-

What is your projection for the corn market?

The relationship between price vs. fundamentals is important, but the corn market is certainly justified with the current price.  Consider what the USDA now believes to be the supply and demand for '11-'12 corn.  They have already reduced the demand simply because the crop is not expected to be as large as previously thought.

Traders have corn at $7 with the anticipation of reducing demand.  This is already built in the market... it is not an opinion.  We know that we have to "hurt demand".  This may not happen with $6 corn.  This will be a difficult year for some end-users and it is unfortunate.  I truly feel sorry for anybody feeding livestock, but it is important to take the emotion away and realize that this is just the nature of the markets.  The current demand has surpassed what we grew again this year.

[rightone]

because of econ progression.  That simple.

E is NOT a factor.  

If there was not E use there would simply be less corn grown ( acres would be more then of other crops ).

Price would be current cash of 7 ish +/- 70 cents

[rightone]

Problem with consolidatations of production and marketing is simply there becomes less places in the market to buy agri products.

Also the afore leaves behind huge niches ( much like Whole Foods is ) that are tremendous market opportunities for producers who like to cater to such and really get paid well for such too.