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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Sub 150 bu market?

I'm more than a bit surprised, but after receiving more indications of moisture deficits in Eden as corn is maturing and E.T. talking about sub 150 I think this will probably be the yield point that now becomes the issue in markets.

 

A 150 yield, let alone a sub 150 would fundementally change the dynamics of the market. China now has to start thinking about what level of imports will set the scene for lighting a fire in the markets. They still have reserves. Do they hold off and risk a poor year in 2012? or do they chip away and keep an orderly schedule of purchases hoping to not rock the boat?

 

Ethanol policy will undoubtedly change, but  more than incremental changes (changing mandates some at the most extreme) could have grave market consequences that politicians, let alone farmers, would not want to see.

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26 Replies
jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: Sub 150 bu market?

   Ethanol policy will undoubtedly change, but  more than incremental changes (changing mandates some at the most extreme) could have grave market consequences that politicians, let alone farmers, would not want to see.

Not all farmers would see that change as negative!

 

But I do agree with you on the sub 150 national yield. Also with lower test weight corn which we will definitely have here in Iowa E plants will not get the efficiency of last years crop and the ddg's will be pure filler. 

 

SO I guess we can't always grow fuel and food!  To bad food is gonna take it on the chin.

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bronzebacks
Contributor

Re: Sub 150 bu market?

I'm sorry jr. but I have to reply to you. The fact is that 10% of our corn is directly used for food. That leaves 90%. Your statement that we can not produce food and fuel is erroneous. Instead of wishing ethanol would go away, how about wishing the price of what you produce would go up. BTW I believe cattle, hogs, and even milk have increased their values greatly during the last year. Where am I wrong??

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: Sub 150 bu market?

Bronze Milk has gone up 30 % from last year till right now. Corn has doubled!  And I was agreeing with Pal the crop ain't there.  I also wish my commodity would double from from year ago levels!  That would put milk at about 34-36 dollars!

 

Maybe I need a lobbiest that has better access to the wishing well?

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

milk is............

dang near $4/gallon now, when it used to be $2...............am I complaining, NO...........meat has gone up too..........am I complaining, NO............(retail level)

 

but if we are going to throw rocks, where are the windows??????

 

if the livestock guy is getting squeezed so hard, then maybe the livestock guy should go find out why he is getting paid so little for his product.............because I am betting average $4 milk and $4 beef will pay the bills with $7 corn...........

 

take your product straight to retail, cut out the middle man, that's were the vacuum is.............heck, even in this down economy Whole Foods is gaining traction, and they specialize in localized fresh products..............

 

as for this crop, yes its going to get interesting...........

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DW11
Veteran Contributor

Re: Sub 150 bu market?

Whoa JR, you seem to forget that you produce some of the most government controlled and mandated products in the agricultural world for the last 50 years.  Then there are the dairy subsidies and disaster programs and other market manipulations.  That doesn't seem to slow you down in your ox is gored by ethanol argument, though.  Keep beating the drums.

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: Sub 150 bu market?

WOW DW name the subsidies.  And as to gov. controlled yea but no more than most. 

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: milk is............

Mizzou your right it has doubled retail but guess what it hasn't doubled wholesale and that is what we are tlakiing about is the farm gate price.

 

But you still don't answer the question. How does E repond to this supply nightmare? It doesn't they have to produce so much and that is regardless of supply.

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bronzebacks
Contributor

Re: milk is............

Let me answer Jr.,  since I can not predict the future my best guess is that this will be changed by a simple stroke of the pen. The subsidy will end and the mandate will be changed. Meanwhile the oil subsidies will remain and we can keep sending our sons and daughters to die in a foreign land for a cause that is confusing at best for a people who are uneducated and morally swayed as the winds blow. In my opinion, a much better way is to have ethanol produced in the midwest thru corn, in the south thru sugar cane and in the prarie's thru switchgrass. The whole middle of the country can be self-sufficient and then the coasts can get their oil. Land prices go up, employment goes up, the gov't. collects revenue in taxes from these things, we save money by bringing our boys home, and best of all they don't die and live happy lives with their families and children. The down side, you pay a little more for feed and people pay a little more for food. Overall, It makes a lot more sense. Of course, then the world wouldn't revolve around your dairy farm. Sorry, I just can't believe the lack of common sense in our politics. 

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DW11
Veteran Contributor

Re: Sub 150 bu market?

JR, if you don't know about these subsidies for dairy, maybe you should get signed up.  The big dairies in my area are some of the most prolific land buyers around.  Even when milk was 1/3 less than now, they were buying up land in my area.

 

http://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=dairy

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