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Honored Advisor

Sue Martin on Market Plus

Seems China HAS been buying US beans, what they do is China buys on the CBOT and a Chinese government owned entity takes physical delivery.   Since they are government owned, they do not pay the tariff!   China reneged on 150 pages of trade agreements in hopes of a "great grain robbery" slamming markets down hard.....except, a little thing called the "weather" bolixed up their plans  Smiley Happy  

 

Sue Thinks a trade agreement will happen in August because China needs all commodities....if the poor sods don`t have enough bad luck, Army worms are eating up the Chinese corn crop.   So, China needs corn, beans pork and anything we can send them   Smiley Very Happy    

 

Plus to send their cheap plastic Christmas crap here, they need to get wheels in motion by August.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKUPImn0P10   

 

 

I love it When a plan comes together - I love it When a plan comes together  Hannibal

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8 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Sue Martin on Market Plus

finally a little optimism by a trader.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Sue Martin on Market Plus

I listen to David Kruse and have to wade though his political crap to occasionally glean a small nugget of wisdom and I`m left in a bad mood after giving him 6 minutes of my day.  The outfit out of Boca Raton Florida keeps pestering me (and I don`t get that, I told them that their stochastics is bull crap many times).  

 

Al Kluis really nailed this weather rally.... I didn`t see it coming and didn`t take it seriously as the dust devils blew and I finished my corn a couple weeks ago.  But apparently it`s Noah`s Ark out there all around...well, now for me to finish the beans, we`re getting our share now. 

 

But Sue Martin...I`m going to subscribe to her newsletter.  I`ve watched her since she was on with Chet Randolf was hosting Market to Market.

 

https://agandinvestments.com/

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Senior Contributor

Re:China bought .....

In the week ending on 5/16, China bought 70,000 metric tons, one boat load.  In April they bought 348,000 MT, 5 loads.  In contrast, in April alone, China bought 7.14 million metric ton from Brazil, or roughly 102 loads

 Granted, I'm surprised that China bought any beans at all but to claim they are buying any significant quantity of US beans is a stretch.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Re:China bought .....

Rick, what Sue is saying is that China bought on the Board of Trade and took physical delivery to a "unknown destination" and that didn`t show up on US export inspections.  No record of it and since it was a government entity, they didn`t pay the Chinese government a tariff.  We`ve of course heard rumblings for months about "US beans going to Argentina and ending up in China" and "Vietnam US ag products"....more that what they typically would use. 

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Re:China bought .....

Problem with that BA is that there were virtually no deliveries. It is a nice theory, and I'm sure the increases to other destinations end up in China, but to be important they would have had to take delivery of thousands of contracts and that didn't happen. fwiw, you can look up deliveries and stoppers on the CME website, it is public information.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Re:Martin, some evidence.

Sue would have to have some evidence to prove or at least strongly suggest this scenario.  Anyone  who follows ocean shipping knows that ships don't leave ports without a destination of record and they all have transponders that can easily be followed in real time.  Transponders can be turned off but that is highly irregular and would attract attention.

Now we do know that the initial destination for many loads of beans coming from Brazil is often Singapore and it's obvious that those beans don't actually go there but are diverted to China, the volume is just too great. But notice is take of ships' arrivals at ports all around the world. A ship that left New Orleans or the Columbia River ports and reappeared in Shanghai would be noticed by a great many observers.

  Unless she has actual evidence of it, she's just blowing smoke. 

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Advisor

Re: Sue Martin on Market Plus

May i throw a monkey wrench in the gears here?  EVERY airplane flying is tracked by radar. don't ya think every ocean going vessel is too? our govt knows exactly where those beans are coming from and going to. they just ain't talking

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Honored Advisor

Re: Sue Martin on Market Plus

Everyone is making good points.  The really important information is hard to come by, information that is used to make status quo points is all over the internet.  Add to that, there are some apologists of China and would rather they have a win than the POTUS have a legacy achievement on trade that those on both sides of the aisle was needed prior to the 2016 election.   But previous pretenders gave no more than lipservice and wink wink nudge nudge everyone knew, until someone so "insane" was elected that he had the audacity to attempt to keep campaign promises....."who does this real estate developer think he is???".

 

I`m in the cheap seats, but it wouldn`t surprise me if holdover USDA beancounters had "I`m with Her" bumperstickers on their Prius`, well they aren`t going to willingly reveal any cracks in the China super stud persona, it`s part of the "insurance policy" in case an outsider ever slipped past the goalie.  David chose 5 smooth stones and took care of business, though Saul offered him his armor.  

 

https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=1+Samuel+17%3A38-50&version=NRSV   

 

Saul clothed David with his armor; he put a bronze helmet on his head and clothed him with a coat of mail. 39 David strapped Saul’s sword over the armor, and he tried in vain to walk, for he was not used to them. Then David said to Saul, “I cannot walk with these; for I am not used to them.” So David removed them. 40 Then he took his staff in his hand, and chose five smooth stones from the wadi, and put them in his shepherd’s bag, in the pouch; his sling was in his hand, and he drew near to the Philistine.

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