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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Sue sez $30 beans in `23!

Well it`s possible, on Market Plus she prefaced it with `if I tell you how high beans could go, you`d think I lost it`   Smiley Happy  She talked about beans taking acres from hay ground.  It`s funny, I`ve heard on the radio of high hay prices at Dyersville and such, the bales having higher percentage of grass, kind of meaning it`s hay that needs broken up and seeded somewhere else.  But locally hay is cheap, guys that buy hay a few small squares for in the barn say last year it was $8, they expected to pay $6 this year and wound up paying <$5 for good quality hay.  

Sue`s weather source says "Dry Hot summer" Happy Dance Emoji GIFs | Tenor 

so perhaps a cow calf guy might want to stock up on at least a little extra "cheap hay".

But here is what Sue says on Market Plus, if you want to skip to $30 beans it`s at about 8:50

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1F15atjX_k

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16 Replies
swmnfarmer2878522
Frequent Contributor

Re: Sue sez $30 beans in `23!

I have heard and read so many rediculous arguments for 16,18,20 dollar beans it isn’t funny.  The perma bulls that never sell and always ride market crashes down feel vindicated since August.  Their only evidence is the rally since august and it has to go higher since they have been right, so far.  We hit 14 dollar beans and they are saying, “don’t sell”.  They fail to add the demand destruction we have already seen.  We haven’t seen a China flash sale in 14 days.  We saw massive Chinese cancellations last Thursday, and it will continue.  These cancellations go back on the balance sheets. With asf in China ramping up again, they won’t need all those beans.  The South American corn is coming in bigger then expected and weather patterns are changing to more benign conditions.  It is well in good for everyone to get free beer at the bar (everyone likes free beer) but eventually someone has to pick up the tab.  Bull rallies end eventually and don’t be the last to sell.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Sue sez $30 beans in `23!

Century:

You are right to say don't get too bulled up.

Always nice to hit one outta the park, just beware of the same chance of a foul ball being caught for an out.

Still 6 months of which 3 of those months determine supplies till early harvest starts.

If you are one that lives on borrowed money and still have unsold inventory your risk is very high in relationship to even higher prices.

The flip side is if you're your own banker then let the game begin.

No long term sin to bank a profit and pay some income tax.

Kinda nice to get a decent SS deposit every month after a certain age...

 

BA,

$8 Sue is always a little exuberant...

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Sue sez $30 beans in `23!

I think the "commodity supercycle" yak is setting a lot or people up to fail. As always, if it doesn't pan out the folks who have been tring to gain attention by promoting it will just walk away and somehow manage to retain some followers.

I think it is a commodity mini-cycle, though. A nice opportunity.

'23 is sort of interesting, though- it is probably the best hit on the 11.6 yr. sunspot cycle, so, yes, if we have a crazy bad drought someday I wouldn't rule out any temporary price peak.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Sue sez $30 beans in `23!

Everyone`s station is different, outside of sitting at Mankato or Eagle Grove 2 hrs to unload after a 1  1/2hr drive all I can get locally for S1X is 12 bucks.   I have enough work without buying myself a job and I`d consider $10 off the combine 2 miles away a "win".   To me an extra $2  ($100/acre) isn`t worth being obligated to deliver what might be $200/acre more if my beans are a "free agent".    If it`s a lot of acres and good yields still beans shouldn`t be below $10 (famous last words  Smiley Happy  ) But I can live with $10 beans off the combine, no fuss no muss.   Plus Revenue Assurance crop insurance.

The way it sounds supplies won`t be "burdensome" even under ideal growing conditions.  I think there will be dipsy-doos testing support levels and whatnot, but to sign my life away for the promise of $12 beans isn`t worth it given the fundamentals.  Besides, the price goes down, i`ll just buy soybean meal.

But everyone`s situation is different, Sue kind of says you should look at 'reowning" beans because 2022 is gonna be real good. 

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giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Sue sez $30 beans in `23!

I subscribe to Sue Martin and she says things in public and says things in private (Subscriptions).  There are times she is dead on, correct.  I just want to hear a different perspective, from a serious professional that can help me make a half way intelligent decision to pull the trigger on the market.   She  does stick her neck out and that does take some "COJONES".

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Sue sez $30 beans in `23!

I think Sue Martin is right up there with any of the advisors, I`d follow her advice more than anyone`s because she`s in the bullish camp as much as anyone else.  And if you think about it whether you`re marketing cars, insurance or corn & beans you have to believe your product is valuable...Lord knows those that try and buy your product will beat it down (they make their money buying).   You sell too cheap, they`ll "take it off your hands" and then the market rallies and there you are with nothing to sell.   A farmer gets 40, maybe 50 times at bat in their career, let someone else give their product away.

The Richard Brocks and Bob Utterbacks are usually in the bear camp, basically in 10 yrs, 7 of the years are crappy markets and 3 yrs of good markets, when those rare 3 good years come, you don`t want to miss out...cause look, during those 7 bad years corn is $3 and beans $8.50 no matter what you do.  Sure maybe you follow a bear`s advice and spend $1 in options to turn your $3 corn into "$4 corn"  but in the end your just as well off to take your medicine and tread water until  prices get good..figuring on making your profit during the 3 good years.

I know guys that had beans to sell last Aug/Sept and sold for $8.75, I sold 10 months earlier for $9 off the combine, not because I was smart or lucky but because i had a stack of bills to pay and I didn`t have the luxury of storing and paying for the privilege to do so.  This fall I sold for $10 off the combine, but didn`t get spooked and contracted everything for $9 because "ya can`t go broke making a profit!".  I missed out selling 2 months later for $13, but considering the bad news bears promised me beans would be <$8 I don`t feel bad.

I guess if a trend can be observed and it`s bullish then subscribe to Sue or Chip, if it`s looking bearish subscribe to Utterback,  The hard part is knowing when the worm turns.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Sue sez $30 beans in `23!

Might be several cargo vessels lined up at East Coast Ports, with  S. American  Soy , for Carolina self feeders,  IF   this  materializes  - - -

Several  speed  bumps  on  marketing  highway  will  appear ,  while  seed  units  will  co$t  say-what  ? 

roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Sue sez $30 beans in `23!

Well, can you imagine selling your beans for $20.......and then they go to $30? Ouch!

Wait....wouldn’t that be like selling beans for $10 and then having them go to $15?  We are almost there folks. 

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Sue sez $30 beans in `23!

If we all consider $12 beans a good price and wish the price was locked there, that isn`t going to ever happen.  Prices get good for 3 years out of 10 and then we have hell to pay 7 years of the 10.  Some get a case of white guilt if beans go above $15, i would say enjoy $15 beans and hope you get to sell $30 beans, cause at the end of the 3 year good spree Cinderella`s carriage turns into a pumpkin.   Smiley Happy

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