Sue sez $30 beans in `23!

[swmnfarmer2878522]

As I read my square of nine chart, we stopped where we should have on the iron cross.  The most upside we have is .25 cents above the highs as I spin the wheel.

[k-289]

Soy  meal  at  $800.oo  -  $1000.oo  /  ton  =    rationing  on  asteroid  steroids  -  -  -    

[BA Deere]

$15/hr min wage and monthly stimulus checks should afford pork in the meat case that was fed $800 meal?    Or perhaps they`re gonna wean us off meat?

[BA Deere]

SWMNfarmer, you`ve always been in the bear camp (and that is fine) but just curious, did the charts warn you of the rare harvest rally to 7,8 year highs?

[swmnfarmer2878522]

Stated You stick with the trend until the trend changes.  The trend has been up since August, I didn't recognize the differences in the rally like many others.  I have since changed many things in my approach to markets.  Don't forget I told everyone the bottoms where in March. I also stated end users should purchase an entire years needs then.  If anyone has said we are for sure going to have 14 dollar beans by the january Highs. They are better men then I.  The problem is too many perma bulls feel vindicated over this run.  Most will talk about 20 dollar beans and ride the market down.  

[BA Deere]

Thanks for your reply SWMN.  It seems to me 2020 was the year of "fake news" USDA reporting a bigger than actual crop, China holding the cards close to the vest on their crop problems (3 Gorges dam nearly failing and that weather) and the pent up Chinese demand resulting from China trying to push their demand down the road in their hopes of a "post-Trump presidency".  These are things that charts don`t pick up, but technical and fundamental traders put in their information toolbox, trouble is it was inaccurate.

I`m a poor marketer, but I recognize a poor price when I see one  I thought a cash bid of $10 off the combine was good, I didn`t hit the highs in 2020, but I got the bills paid and wasn`t in the bottom 1/3 of prices, not buying into the "contract now to avoid losing more later" philosophy. 

Fundamentally we should be "safe" a year or two, by safe I mean not going sub $9.  i don`t see going from $14 to $9 and these past months being only a flash in the pan.  Fundamentally the demand should be there for 2021, if nothing else revenue assurance is a safety net.   That`s not saying we don`t drop a couple bucks and a lot of regret in the country for not having sold the heck out of the extreme top of $14.

[k-289]

Let  see  what  Sue  says  in  September  - 2023  ,  as  lots  of  water  will  go  down  the  Mississippi  by  then  -  -  -