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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Sunday edition

Well another week has pasted in 2016.......Lets see, the stock markets continue to sink like a preverbel "lead ballon", after the "worst start of a new year in history"....oil keeps free falliing.....talk of $10 to $20 a barrel....even the the middle east oil companies

are tighting their belts.......and even talk, of selling off some interests....wal-mart closing it's small market stores (some in rural

areas)...commodities just bobbing around....david bowie dies.Grizzly Adams passed away  .we now have a new bird flu that is on at least 9 farms now.....the cheifs loose, and it's cold outside !!

oh......you fellows that are talking to the 'girlfriend" on the celluar phone, ah the NSA has been approved to "log" all cell phone

calls.....although it will not record it, it will document a call was made....that might be enough to make you stutter when

you are questioned, why were you making all these calls to this number...and finding out who owns the number is childs play.

It should have been tittled "the divorce lawyer funding act of 2016".

The markets......everyone and their strange uncle are in the corn market.......the march corn has a open interest in excess of 696,000

in the march contract...that is more than all the march in beans and hrww, almost double !

so here is the question....the expiration is 3/14....the cost of a at the money call is $352.50.  So what is the "better investment", the

call, or a trip to the local casino....where you pay for the fuel for the car, buy a few meals, "make some investments", and maybe

spend the night, and again, the gas comming home ?

In theory, they will not hold onto them, untill worthless.  As the maket goes lower, the smiles get wider and wider, but, at some

point in time, they have to "sell", in order to make their money....that would usually mean a higher market.

In the good old days, we had inefficient humans in the chain, they would get orders, write them down then jump up and down and holler, etc to get a trade....this took time....and this time seemed to push the market higher because the shorts were telling

to sell at any price to get out and make as much as they could....we talk about a room full of "overweight " people trying to

get thru a single door...it will take a while, and the market goes up......

Now here is a question....today we are all electronic....the door is now the size of a coax cable....we can put alot of electrons

on one of those wires...ie trades...and all of this is done at the speed of light...no holllering and yelling, phone calls, entering

it for the board can display.......nope...all done in one room, with a bunch of monitors, and the olny sounds are the

soft buzz of the fans on the processor chips, the crickets chirping, and the occasional "snap" of someone walking over

the carpet, discharging static elec.

With all of this.....we have a sudden change in the market.......it could be over in a matter of minutes........and since there

is almost no "time" value, in other words, time to allow market to rise, and trades take so fast, amoung computers...would

there be that much of a rise ?  in a matter of seconds, all 696,000 contracts are offset.....and we hear nothing, but perhaps

one computer sifting the hard drive into high and humming a little bit.

 

Well lets cover some more news....NASA and DOD are comming ot with the plantary defence department....hmmm

 

Also, a story on how the DOD is spent 15 billion on artifical intelligence...we have drones that take our warrors out of harms

way...well these new ones will be like humans so they could fit in the tanks and jeeps.....and we are using AI.

One fellow working in AI said by 2029, we would have one that is twice as smart as a human, and will cost no more

than the average desktop computer today.

AI has been brouht to the limelight by WATSON, who wins game shows. beats the best chess player in the world in

19 minutes, is now used in medicine to figure out what is wrong with you with over a 98% accuracy....and now used

by walstreet to put all the stuff in about a compuany, and watson suggests what to do, and usually right in over

95% of the time.....

 

since it is sunday....a need to do a little religion....in the bible.....there is a story about how the "iron men" try to take over

the world......iron men.....hmmmm

 

I wonder....the office of plantary defence......who are they watching.....asteroids.....little green men....or WATSON(s).

oh.....by the way, we think we can now see gravity waves, that according to enstine could lead to time/space travel, and

are also seeing a black hole...."acting odd".

 

For some good news !!!

 

most on here enjoy hunting.....well this one is for you.....the state of flordia has the "python challange"....they are giving an

award of the most snakes and the longest one !!!!  DEAD OR ALIVE (i've been waiting years to use that line !)

seems they are out of control in the everglades.....over 600 have signed up.....so far only 38 have been brought

in, since they are hard to see...

I think there is an informal SF south america tour forming.....hobby, EC, SW, GIO was providing the refreshments....

maybe they can make a stop and do some snake hunting.....with ole eagle eye at the wheel, they can patrol the

swamps.....and eagle eye can quote the imortal words of Troy Landry "shooots em   shooots em", when he

spots a snake.

 

enjoy the remainder of the week

 

 

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4 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Sunday edition

Can't wait for the new week to begin.   The glass is half full, my friend.  Smiley Happy

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giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Sunday edition

Elcheapo,

 

The only snake eyes I want to see are on the craps table.  

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Sunday edition

i made a mistake, i looked at some data wrong

from the jan 12 cftc

corn....open interest 1,388,xxx

kcwht opten interest 209,xxx

soybeans open interest 671,xxx

(still quite a bit more in the corn)

 

commerical/users   long  343,000  up 12,000 from week before

                               short  506,xxx  down 19,xxx

 

managed   long 151,xxx  down 2,xxx from week before

                  short  346,xxx  up 23,xxx from week before.

 

I would tackle the options.....but i don't quite understand the chart.

 

basicly the same idea.....almost twice as much activity in the corn pit.

 

both commericals are short, more than long.......but odd enough, managed money, the number of shorts increased, but

commericals there was a net long addition, and there was a drop in the number of shorts......so maybe some small hope that

the commericals might be making a ever so slow, corse change ? but looking at the numbers tho, a 3.4% increase in long

positions, while a 3.75% decrease in short positions.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Sunday edition

It is somewhat a function of the market since the crop size in corn is 12+ billion and the crop size in soybeans is 3 billion...

Corn should be bigger somewhat....

 

And wait a minute......... I had to reread........ Why didn't they just grab the 600 snakes when they signed up?

 

Smiley Happy

 

 

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