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Veteran Advisor
Posts: 614
Registered: ‎06-03-2010
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Re: TID BITS

The irony of it all. So the 'elites' convinced us all to make changes because of climate warming. Now studies are starting to show that all those windmills created with billions of our tax dollars(that will never return that investment), may very well be the cause of some of our extreme weather events because of the change they cause to air flow. Can't make this crap up.  But it sure padded their pockets well while electric rates keep rising.  Buffet got richer off the tax cuts(Buffet is one of the welfare kings), and we got a beautiful Iowa landscape littered with his steel global warming gods.

Wait till  all the electric cars are pulling off the electric grid. 

Yet they manage to make it some more and more cars are not equipped to use E85, even though it is very inexpensive thing to do. If the president wants to impress some Iowa farmers today, make the announcement that all vehicles sold in the U.S. must be able to burn E85. Remember when they put the fear in everyone that ethanol would raise the price of corn so much that it would raise food prices significantly.  What is they excuse with corn, beans, and wheat so cheap and food prices still high and going higher?

 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,702
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: TID BITS

Jec, the" butterfly effect" is the official name for it. Pretty darn large butterflies.

Frequent Contributor
Posts: 39
Registered: ‎04-04-2011
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Re: TID BITS

You seem like a pretty intelligent guy with much of your reasoning and lengthy explanations.

However, it still doesn't appear that you could be smart enough to be a farmer.

 

You can harvest corn in most any condition, day or night as long as the soil can support the equipment.

If the grain is still too wet, it can be run through dryers.

Even if it takes all winter, you could still harvest corn in spring, although by then there will be some loss.

 

Beans however, require much more exacting conditions, like some sun and wind so the plant material as well as the beans themselves are dry. If you miss you opportunity, and if there is a heavy snow, then it is over, they will be flat on the ground - 100% loss.

 

Regarding the damage you cite, much of that is likely damage from being flooded. So what is done, is to go around these low lying areas that were flooded, and harvest the undamaged portion of the field that was not.

 

In addition, you can usually harvest soybeans at faster rate than corn , meaning the $/hr accomplished harvesting is much greater with soybeans than corn.

 

Every farmer will do his best to harvest it all. To accomplish that requires getting the soybeans as a priority when conditions allow.

 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 4,796
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: TID BITS

California   having   11,000 + of  wind mills  for  decades  - doesn't  have  a  wet  weather  problem  (4029,  Alta  Wind  Energy Center , Tehahcapi  Calif)  Kern County  &    2159, San Gorginio Pass  - Palm Springs Calif.  in  those  2  sites  alone   -   -   -

 

Coal  might  reflect  on  their  undoing  of  consumption  due  to  the  reluctance  to  clean  up  emissions  -  -  -

 

The  technology  being  present,  although  the  financial  (bean counters)  refused  to  proceed  -  -  -

 

So,  here  we  are  -  -  -      

Honored Advisor
Posts: 8,920
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: TID BITS

Well the folks who actually market something have a problem.  It is so wet that even this thread is getting very moldy and quite infested.

How will we shake out the moldy rhetoric and the logic that is so old it  has begun to sprout from inbred genetics.  How can we fill in the ruts create by carrying the sappy soaked load of  inflated opinions of our opinions.

 

I am reminded of how far society has traveled away from its agrarian roots, how little it cares about those who prepare its meals, and how few of those with strong opinions have the skills to avoid food poisoning or starvation if renders "self reliant".

 

 

Senior Contributor
Posts: 524
Registered: ‎09-20-2018
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Re: TID BITS

No, I could not be a farmer, I have little experience or aptitude for losing money. But what I can do is analyze the financial components of any business and figure out ways to optimize income. 

 

While you may be able to harvest corn at any time as you write, that crop sitting out in the field is your money. If you borrowed to plant, that corn in the field is a ticking interest leech, sucking profits out of your pocket for every day its out there. If you used your own capital, then that corn is money that could have been reinvested. So for every day that corn remains unharvested, you are hemorrhaging money. That's not a sound business practice. You earn your most when you get your product to market as soon as you can and get cash in your hand to be put back to use.

 

So if you know a good part of your bean crop is damaged by water, and you know you can either spend time figuring out what beans to harvest and which to leave in the field, and you also know you can get the corn into the bin and get paid for it, you would be truly remiss not to get the corn in first, or at least give priority to harvesting more corn than beans. Time is money in any business, you can either waste time deciding what bean crop to harvest or you can be ringing the cash register for every minute of your day by bringing in your corn.

 

btw, the numbers released this afternoon are encouraging for the end users. The national corn harvest gained 8 percentage points last week, despite the reports around here that the Mid West had Biblical type rains that were making harvest impossible. Even in Iowa, where several of our resident naysayers reside, their corn harvest rose from 11% to 15%, double of the progress at this time in Iowa last year. 

 

Nationwide, the corn harvest is 34% complete, which compares to 21% at this time last year, and a long term average of 26% for the beginning of October. NOAA is predicting the sun will come out starting this Thursday and stay bright and sunny for the next two weeks thereafter. So for the corn crop, the wet weather of the last week is not stopping the world's best farmers from getting what appears to be a massive crop into the market.

 

Corn prices retreated today before this news came out. The market has not been able to reach $3.70 even when the rain was falling and hopes ran high that farm machinery would not make it through the fields. That optimism clearly has been wrongly placed. Now we wait for Thursday's USDA crop report, expect to be in the 181 bushel per acre level. 

 

Thursday will be make or break for a lot of corn farmers. If the old adage that a big crop gets bigger holds true this year and the USDA report is above 182, I doubt that anyone will have a chance to sell any of their corn above $3.60 for the next month at least. But there are some very key support levels in the lower $3.50s, which if they hold may spell another retest of the $3.70 price region.

 

If the market does not hold $3.52 for December corn, its going to be a bloodbath in the corn market. The next real support below is the fulfillment level of the double top in December corn, which sits at $3.29. I would expect some good sized short covering at that level and even some decent end user demand. If $3.29 falls, I hate to say what comes next, so I will be an optimist and hold that thought until the $3.29 area is tested. Remember, there is a lot of money on the sidelines, as the bounce in price during the last two weeks has caused something like 80,000 corn futures contracts to be closed.

 

Additionally, the daily volume numbers indicate that much of the corn out in the field has not yet been placed, which is really going to be a malpractice on someone's part if prices cascade lower. I still think that the risk reward ratio strongly favors hedging some portion of expected supply up here in the $3.60s, as the maximum upside I see for the December delivery is only slightly above $4, while in the worst case the market could drop twice as much as it could go up from current levels. 

Frequent Contributor
Posts: 39
Registered: ‎04-04-2011

Re: TID BITS

There is no rushing the corn to market at these price levels.

I will store it for as long as it takes for the price to come around, even if it means years.

It has paid handsomely in the past.

I have learned that the worst marketing mistake is to sell your production too cheap.

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Veteran Advisor
Posts: 614
Registered: ‎06-03-2010
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Re: TID BITS

K-289   I didn't say windmills make wet weather, just extreme weather.  Maybe in CA they add to the increase in wildfires.  Tons of extreme weather in Iowa this year, wet spring, dry summer, wet fall.  Crazy how  good the yields are.  Tons of tile, better genetics, fertilization plans and treatments for fungus.  So does those 11,000 windmills lower the electrical rate?

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,702
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: TID BITS

Water over some US hwys in Iowa, two tornadoes in my county right now.

 

Winds and lots of rain.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 524
Registered: ‎09-20-2018
0

Re: TID BITS

That's why I say that the American farmer is the greatest food producer ever in the history of mankind !

 

Even when your land is drenched and the Four Horsemen appear in the corners of the sky, you guys still know how to get your crop to market so the rest of the planet can eat ! For you guys to get a third of your massive corn crop off the fields already considering the weather conditions is truly amazing. I expect that there won't be a corn stalk left in the field by Halloween...except of course on your farm where I sure there will be tornadoes and torrential rain.

 

My hat is off to you ! 

 

Now go get your suntan lotion, you're gonna need it come Thursday.