"Early grains are trading mostly higher, the old crop corn is about penny higher while new crop is about a penny lower. Old crop soybeans in the May contract are 25 cents higher while new crop is up nine. Wheat is generally 20 to 23 cents higher.
Old crop soybeans have surged higher from the previous highs from last week. The NOPA Crush number came in today at 153.8 million bushels. That compares to 137.1 million bushels last year for the month of March. Today’s Crush was around 6 million bushels higher than the trade was expecting. The market is going to need to find a way to do some additional rationing in old crop soybeans. That’s a primary item that’s pushed beans higher here at the midday trade.
Wheat is sharply higher for the second day in a row. The primary reason would be the increase in tension and conflict within Ukraine. If the conflict gets more serious, we could have either reduced shipments out of the Ukrainian area or even reduced production if they don’t have the inputs necessary for an optimal crop.
Corn was lower most of the day, but did rally back to levels nearly unchanged here as we get closer to the close.
The midday weather maps show that more rain with a system next week could reduce the corn planting window of opportunity. The grain markets are likely to resist any large moves to the downside until the forecast proves that the weather will allow for a more significant planting window.
MARKET COMMENTARY April 15, 2014
The corn is getting third billing today behind soybeans and wheat in the news department. Wheat gains of 20-22 cents in the KC and Chicago contracts were the result of weather concerns in the US, and political concerns in Ukraine, where the tensions appear to be growing once again. Failed wheat acreage in the US might go to corn or beans if there is adequate moisture for the next crop, but that is a pretty big IF right now.
Soybeans had a surprise in the form of a much larger than expected crush number for the month of March. The number came in 6 million bushels larger than expected, and when beans are this tight, it doesn’t take much of a change to get the bulls revved up. The close over $15 in May futures, along with firm cash bids in the country, are signs of strength that just might be with us for the spring and summer as the market works to “solve” the soybean conundrum with prices that ration a tight supply, and finding out how to get imported soybeans to the right places in the supply/demand chain.
Here is a link to moisture accumulation in Iowa over the past week.
Re: TID BITS
Partly sunny. Very windy. Warmer. High in the lower 60s. South wind 20 to 30 mph increasing to 30 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 mph
HEY SW: I know we're friends and all but, You do not have to share the wind at these levels with me. We are under a fire warning, more than 3 inches of liquid sunshine and still a fire warning. Yep the new Kansas, right here in Ioway. Been sounding like a frieght train outside all night as it is.