one thing about pictures, they are always loved by the trend. Sort of, bringing the backyard itus to the masses...
I think there is a lot of crop.......... but then after the last 8 years I am not sure I would know an average crop if I saw it...
One thing's for sure.... we have forgotten how to handle a normal crop. Those drought years gave us "just enough" and we got used to handling "just enough".
Now the last two we have seen crop with some decent rains. Are we seeing abundance or an average crop again? I for one can't remember.
But we have a crop again and can't remember what we did when there was plenty to export--every year since the great depression except for maybe 2011-2012 we had plenty for the export market--- a six months or a year supply in carry. We can't remember handling it when it went under the warehouse receipt for 9 months, until it hatched into foreign aide. I gubermt garntee it wasn't stored on the ground for nine months.
What I wonder when I look around is how many fields and bushels are going to break even? Because it is all relative value. And in that respect I think we are raising half a crop at best. A cheap crop is more expensive to harvest, more expensive to haul and store.....and it takes twice as much of it to buy everything that it needed....
It is foolish to think that it goes in the bin to wait for better prices. The last few years have guaranteed it will not, not in large numbers. And the inflexibility of the US economy fuels that fire. Without strong competition there is no lowering of steel, seed, fertilizer and labor prices.... Government mandates will keep most costs from becoming more affordable.
This crop will cash in quick like the last one...... and maybe the export market has already started to gobble it up...
On the board we read statements of how grain may become hard to find to fill those sales? Harvest is 60 days away and bills come due,,,, there will be no problem finding the grain to sell cheap in the export market.
My guess is we sold a $70 billion dollar corn crop in 2014, a $58 billion corn crop in 2015, and we will struggle to sell a $40-45 billion corn crop in 2016............... no matter where the YIELD and ACRES fall...... or how good the pictures look.
It is like usda is running the shell game and saying "Keep your eyes on the yield and acres" and keep ordering those expensive imputs-----( and by the way, we expect you to store it in hope of better prices, so we can use your storage at your risk, at a cheap price)
The market is back under control
