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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

TID BITS

Dodged the bullet again last night. .23"

 

Didn't need that. 

At this point and as wet as we are more rain will only decrease yields.

 

Have to wonder when we will have a muddy harvest, been quite a while.

 

 It appears there is a large crop coming . 

 

Ray J and his wife met us at Podunk last night for supper....great time for us that just flew by.

 

He asked a great question...."what's going to happen next year with another 15 billion bu corn crop?"

 

Didn't take him long to find out my pay grade was pretty far down the scale.

 

That has  me thinking this morning....I still don't have a answer,  cutting costs? I'm already there. $55 on seed cost (corn) 140# nh 3 in the spring, $20ish on weed control. Cash rent is paid at the treasurers office at the court house.

 

I did splurge last month and bought a layer house full of litter to be used on some upland fields this fall.

 

It appears there is quite a good yield possibility out in yonder fields. Some of it looks much better than last year.

 

Will big yields offset the lower price? Dec, Jan, Feb and into Mar May be a trying time in many lenders offices this winter. 

 

The cash up front guy will definitely be in the driver's seat in the next two years...

 

The vast majority of this year's crop is still unpriced, not a good thing for the leveraged grower. 

 

Two things that have surprised me personally is how fast many are in financial trouble.

 

2nd is how many are not good at basic business, read on several farm ba s ed web sites of farmers say I g they would keep renting at a loss and errode their asset base just to control the acres. Explain  to me how that works again In simple English slowly please.

 

I have several jobs here at my place I would be happy to have someone pay me to let them do...

 

It has been pointed out to me that beans are "overpriced"  Don't we need at least at least one thing that isn't totally tanked?

 

Heard JD stock was up nicely yesterday,  also read 65% of their business is lawn and garden, acreage owners sized stuff.  Had a little whiff of that in July when I was in the market for a new lawn mower, they had the highest price for a second rate lawn mower. Guess someone has to pay for that brand new store with the one acre showroom.

 

 

 

 

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16 Replies
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: TID BITS

Something I have been watching, SW kind of breached the subject...

All the bean sales have been for the next year (starts this Sept) .

 

How many are or have optional origin clauses in them?

 

Granted the weather has not straightened out in SA, are these real sales or just in reality options to buy at a certain price?

 

With the current weather over much of our Delta are we certain we have an abundant supply? That area does make a significant  contribution to our totals and early supplies. 

 

A little flooding here and there along with a real problem there if it continues could along with an early frost up north might just trim half a billion bushels off of the forecast, then where is the cushion? 

 

Not in the bin yet....

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: TID BITS

Need a high dollar  market for these 2016-08-20 13.24.37.jpg

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jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: TID BITS

You should have asked Ray J his thoughts on this 

 

http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/business/corn-syrup-makers-seeking-record-prices-20160819

 

 

Obviously that is why we are called 'dumb' farmers...who would have thought with too much supply you raise the price. 

Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: TID BITS

BStart a thread about it and ask for his input. 

 

One thing we saw on our drive about out west  a month ago was lots of sugar beets.

 

Checked  another field this evening. ..going to see some nice #'s on the monitor if no flood.

2016-08-20 21.02.06.jpg2016-08-20 21.04.14.jpg

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: TID BITS

Nice deep kernels Hobby - btw - What was the planting date ?  Just wondered how far behind you I was .

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: TID BITS

May 7th, was date on corn in above pictures, 

 

May 15th was last corn planting date for me.

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: TID BITS

Wonder how this will price out compared to dealer prices...

 

http://sullivanauctioneers.com/auction/absolute-machinery-consignment-auction-2/

 

Anybody going?

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: TID BITS

The supply side of the corn sweetener industry changed

 

the Memphis plant used 200,000 bushels per day.....it not only closed, the plant was dismantled and the ground was leveled...

 

Another plant in eastern Ontario was taken over by an across-the-fence customer and will no longer produce sweetener....

 

** and maybe, just maybe, the highly touted demise of the HFCS business is not happening quite as quickly as forecast.....recovery in global sugar prices can help improve exports for  periods of time....

 

Nymex sugar # 11 has gone from 13 cents/pound in early February to right at 20 cents now

 

not every ag market is in a bear market....

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jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: TID BITS

Ray,

 

It would have been nice if that information was in the article I posted.  That would have been good old school journalism.  Thanks for the "rest of the story".

 

Good to hear there is still demand for HFCS.  So much bias-science out there.  Just like all the people against GMO's while they are eating seedless grapes and brocoli.