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Honored Advisor

TID BITS

https://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Argentina?symbols=none&type=prec

 

https://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Brazil?symbols=none&type=prec

 

Click on play for one week animated forecast

 

The four maps on the right give temps, rain, etc.

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Honored Advisor

Re: TID BITS

Last time Argentina had this kind of weather was our winter of 2012.

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Honored Advisor

Re: TID BITS

One of the gurus on USFR said that even with the bearishest scenario of a 178 nat yield and highest expected acreage, still that 2.4 billion bu carryover will be flat.  And something about US corn exports the last few weeks or so were the highest ever, ever.  Kind of saying something about "$5 corn" too Dec 18 futures....but still.  ol` Georgy the other guru threw cold water on it of course, but there is a story for corn and beans.  

 

Something about Argentina soybean meal is exported more than US, so they aren`t insignificant if it`s dry there.

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Honored Advisor

Re: TID BITS

I would be very reluctant to sell more than 75% of crop insurance guarantee before getting into July west of the Mississippi river.

 

Basis could eat the other 25% . Basis could easily invert again. 

 

This last massive system basically missed everybody west of Missouri and Iowa.

 

Beans leave Argentina as meal, May have to import Brazilian beans to have enough.

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