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Honored Advisor

Re: Rain delay

Who said anything about panic becides you?

 

You asked a question, I'm sorry I answered it.

 

It is becoming apparent this site has acquired a "pet rattlesnake"

 

Excuse me while I go get an anti venom treatment.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Rain delay

I thought farmers rose and set with the sun. Why are you here in the middle of the night ? I am starting to wonder if you are a farmer at all, or just a sniveling little troll. 

 

Excuse me while I disinfect my computer from your bullsh*t.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: TID BITS

Rayfcom you sre either a complete ***** or are just playing one to get reactions.

Just in case you really are a complete ***** I will say that just because the USDA says farmers are two weeks ahead on harvest on the calendar means norhing. When the fields get as saturated as they are getting with this rain event this time of year with cool temps and no sun it can take weeks to dry out to the point they will hold up machinery. You can search youtube for videos of stuck machinery being pullled in two while trying to extricate.

Corn harvest was two weeks ahead of schedule because the CROP IS MATURE. A mature crop standing in the field is at risk. It isnt going to stand for an extra two weeks without damage just because the USDA calendar says so.
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Senior Contributor

Re: TID BITS

Remember this when the price is 30 cents lower in a few weeks. People who know a lot more about the supply/demand numbers than either you or me are not buying into this price bounce - open interest in the December futures contract has dropped by about 80,000 contracts (which equates to 400 million bushels of corn - since the last lows in mid-September. If you were correct about the weather causing serious damage to the huge crop out in the field, they would be getting into the market, not getting out.

 

I remind you that the private surveys taken during the last week and a half and performed after the last USDA report all found that while the corn crop is mature, it is not experiencing any damage from the recent rains. And in addition these surveys found that the crop that is in good enough condition for delivery is actually larger per acre than the USDA's last estimate. The weather forecast says that starting in the second half of this week, dry weather will exist in the plains and Midwest, and no one who knows anything about harvest conditions is showing any signs of worry about crop damage. 

 

Hope does not pay bills, only cash from sales or loans from banks. You can't get the latter without the former. And right now if your marketing plan relies on hope that the weather will damage enough of your crop so that prices go higher, you might as well convert your farm land into cemetery plots, because you are really much better at whistling past the graveyard than marketing your product.

 

As for me, I am not playing anything to get reactions, I came to this forum to see if there was any good information on the progress of the 2018 season. Instead I get rubbish from you that does no one any good at all save from temporarily alleviating your fears that prices will go lower. I did not write the part about the recent wet weather not having an impact on the corn harvest, that was cited from a report by a large and well-known broker/research firm who have surveyed the entire corn crop in all the major corn growing States.

 

Just in case I am a complete ***** as you suggest, I will remind you of the words of Euripedes (look him up) when he wrote that if a person talks sense to a fool, the fool will call him foolish. I am talking sense to you, and you don't want to listen. Maybe you will be correct in the end, but for right now, if you're a farmer with a crop in the bin or the field and you are not selling into this bounce, every indicator that means anything to the determination of price going forward is saying you are the fool.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: TID BITS

   let's see, if the soybeans in the field are turning black and many are laying flat, does that effect yield?   Black and flat, flooded tracts, just wondering how much you have to take off Iowa's yield.  It won't be safe to do some hillsides for a very long time. The heaviest rain is suppose to hit Tuesday. 

Rayf, Hobby is one of the most honest farmers on this site, if you don't know that you must speak Mandarin. He has had many out to his farms.  Just because you want bearish news, the truth is the truth.  We are headed to Argentina wet harvest repeat.  They say the weather pattern is going to change, but there is an hurricane heading toward CA that looks to journey toward Iowa...so that dry spell might not happen.

We will find out if stalk devastators can be filled with mud.

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Honored Advisor

Re: TID BITS

All the traders know is that rain MAKES grain .

Gonna be more better the higher the rain totals...

He's on the wrong side of this on the board,.
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Senior Contributor

Re: TID BITS

I don't want bearish news, I trade from both long and short sides of the market. I don't care which way the market moves as long as it moves.

 

What guides me is evidence, not hope, because evidence is what eventually moves prices. Most of what I hear from Hobby is anecdotal snide remarks, few of which are confirmed by the data collected from across the corn fields of America. And when I point this out to him, he disregards it and resorts to some wise a-s comment that is really not called for in a serious forum, and for which I have no time to waste on.

 

I don't know about soybeans as I do not trade that market, I follow the news I receive from public and private sources on corn, and I follow the technical factors discerned from chart studies. And every report I have received for the last month is telling me that what the charts are saying is confirmed by fundamental reports. The corn crop has not been so adversely affected by the last week or so of rain to make much of a difference in the supply/demand equilibrium that determines price, and the two week bounce in corn prices for now cannot be supported going forward without new buying interest that increases both volume of trade and market participation.

 

I have been told from sources who have been correct in the past that in most of the corn growing areas, they need a few days for the rain water to percolate down into the soil, and then about two more weeks of good weather to get their corn crop harvested. I also have been told that if there ever is an optimal time to have torrential rains, its at the end of the season when the upper level of soil already have seen much of its moisture evaporated by the hot summer sun. The dryness in the upper soil levels can best absorb much of the rain, which is not the case early in the growing season when the upper levels are wet from the melted snow. 

 

Additionally as I have written, if it was the case that the wet weather of late has caused significant reduction in yield, prices would not have stalled in the upper $3.60s but would have proceeded to the $3.80-$4.05 area. That hasn't happened, even though some of the brightest minds in the corn world have the financial wherewithal and the data resources to have made that price increase happen. 

 

I will be very happy to trumpet a bullish message on corn if given the reason to do so. Those reasons are not present now. There are two big reports this week that will tell us how the corn crop and harvest are progressing, perhaps that will change the price landscape. But until that happens, traders and farmers alike should respect the information we know, and that is there is a huge crop coming to a market that is shying away from paying up for the product, all taking place in a market that has been bearish for most of the last six years. You want truth, that's the truth.

 

You can deny it at your risk, but in light of the evidence we know today, if you have corn that you will need to sell during the next few months and you have not hedged some of that production during this price bounce, you are taking unwarranted risk that may be very costly if the negative trend in price re-asserts itself. My chart work is telling me that the upside potential to the December corn delivery is maybe as much as 35 cents from here, but the downside potential starts at 17 cents, easily winds up at 30 cents, and if that $3.29 area does not hold off a selling avalanche we have a chance to see prices move to the $2.80's before this year is out. To risk as much as an 80 cent drop in what you will receive for your production all to gain maybe 35 cents is a foolish wager, and that's the point I have been making that seems to fall short of too many ears in the farm and coop community right now. 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: TID BITS

Ray you are wasting your time. There are a few of us who have attempted to educate the people posting on this forum to no avail. 

 

I use to visit this forum daily, but the constant barrage of farmers/producers that would rather bash market advisors/traders instead of taking advice/information was just too much. 

 

I am also short this market, I was telling farmers/producers to hedge their OND18/JFM19 back in May around 4.20 futures and was told I was crazy and that corn futures were "headed for 5$."


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Veteran Advisor

Re: TID BITS

rayf, I must need what you are drinking. In this day and age 'sources' need to be confirmed.  I want names of your sources.

 

Farmers, why worry, we will all be done in two weeks after this rain stops on Wed.  Happy days.     It might work, if all the combines out east head to Iowa after we get a week of dry weather. Isn't IL, IN, and OH done with all there perfect weather? Is that what your source says rayf? 2018 moto:  Come tear up your combines in Iowa. 2018 Mud derby.     I just wish I knew if patience will pay off, or it going to get worse.

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Senior Contributor

Re: TID BITS

The only source you need is to look at the price charts for corn. They are screaming that if you are long you are wrong, The risk/return ratio right now is something like 1 to 1 and perhaps even more than 2 to 1. That would not be the case if your abject evaluation of how the corn harvest will proceed was anywhere near the truth. Markets don't lie, and as I have written elsewhere, if the rain damage were as great as you and others hoping against hope for higher prices portray, you would be seeing buyers paying $4 rather than $3.70. 

 

Maybe you are correct in your estimations, I have no axe to grind in this discussion. I would just as readily be long as short if the market was telling me that an up move was more likely to occur than a down move. Unlike you, I can make profits regardless of the direction of prices. You have only one option. But until the market tells me that what you are saying is correct, I will stick to what the market is saying, and that is the current corn prices are more likely to fall from here than go up. And if you are a producer and not hedging some of your current production, you quite well will be sorry that you did not listen to what the market was telling you.

 

Now just to show you I am open minded about all this, come tomorrow we will get a report on how much of the overall corn crop has been harvested as on end of day yesterday. It stood at 26% coming into last week. With all the rain from last week, that percentage should not be much different than the prior week. But if that number is up in the high 30s or greater, then the rain story is going to get a bit soggy.

 

Then on Thursday, the USDA provides its monthly crop report. The last report estimated 181+ bushels per acre across the corn growing USA, and had some rather bulky carry out numbers. If the new report shows a significant reduction in the production and carry out numbers, then the market will have the fundamental data that at least supports higher prices. 

 

If those numbers do not show a slow down in harvest or a reduction in production and carry out, be prepared for a very bad day and days thereafter. If they indicate that the harvest is really slowed and production and inventory will be seriously down-sized, then all we need is for the technical factors like Open Interest to rise and corn prices will be on their way up. 

 

Its that easy. You can then argue all you want about what the market does to the prices thereafter. But the bottom line is it really doesn't matter what you think, what matters is price. Because in the end price will dictate whether you stay in business or not, price will determine your income, price will determine your life., That's what you signed up for when you got into this business, and unless James Earl Jones shows up and disappears into your corn field, that's the way its always going to be down on the farm. 

 

My point has never been that prices are definitely going one way or the other. What I have been saying for the last two weeks is that if you are a producer, the market is giving you a gift with this price bounce since the risk to reward ratio is so slanted against your interests. Accordingly you should take advantage of the opportunity and sell some of your expected production into this rally to hedge against prices resuming their downtrend once the short covering ends. The risks are so much against the producer right now that its really gambling not to hedge your bets at this point, especially since the market is giving you the rare opportunity to do so. 

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