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Honored Advisor

TID BITS

Well they send it to our east coast then few months later we send it back to their east coast. Not all those sales are to  China but are sales because of China.

"Brazil Update from Matthew Kruse:

The Chinese literally bought up all the soybeans in Brazil. So much so that Brazil has flip flopped and is now importing soybeans to cover their commercial processing needs. It is relatively small amounts to just get them by until the next harvest.

They will import over 2 million bushels in August and have imported nearly 14 million bushels so far this year. Prices at the port seems over heated paying 137 reais/sack ($11.22 per bushel).

The Chinese are buying more grain in the US not because they want to fulfill their Phase I trade agreement, but because they have to. There has been zero correlation between China’s purchases and their Phase I commitments. As soon as Brazil can resupply them, they will immediately redirect their purchases away from the US, regardless of commitments.

The second half of 2020 is our time to shine for exports. Brazil’s next crop will start to harvest by January if planted on time. 60 MMT of Brazilian soybeans are already committed for next season. If Brazil produces 130 MMT that is roughly 46% of their crop. The Brazilian corn market seems to be following in step with their soybean market. They have exported 7 MMT for August and roughly 12.3 MMT for the year so far.

Most of the crop has been sold or committed to, they just haven’t exported it yet. They have imported 8 million bushels so far this year though. This is the second year in a row they seem to over export to the point they have to turn around and start importing to keep the processors going.

Prices at the port have reached 60 reais per sack ($4.60 per bushel)"

 

2 Replies
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Veteran Advisor

Re: TID BITS

So it makes me curious what their average export price was for corn and beans compared to the white they’re paying for the imported corn and beans. sell low, buy high maybe? that’s real good business

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Honored Advisor

Re: TID BITS