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Honored Advisor

TID BITS

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/News

 

Still early but behind.

Gotta love the one comment , planting is delayed due to dryness but expecting 20% better yields than last year.

They are busy selling a crop that isn't even planted yet.

+ $6 corn

+ $13 beans

Rice doubled in price.

Maybe there is still a little upside?

ADM des Moines is taking Nov contracted beans now.  Btw they are $10.53 cash right now.

 

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Re: TID BITS

We've had, what, 8 straight years of above average precip in the growing season in the corn belt in the USA? Markets are spoiled and have forgotten what weather markets are like. Now we have a pretty strong La Nina in the Pacific that could easily last into next summer. And it's already dry everywhere (to varying degrees).

This year I was on offense - I planted thicker and fertilized heavier, and for corn at least that seems to have paid off. I'm only 30% done now, but setting records for each field so far. However, if this La Nina persists until planting next year, I will go defensive. I plan to rip a bunch of my ground to help decompact it from the last few wet years, and maybe plant a little thinner. I ordered corn numbers with flex or semi-flex ears, and high ratings for drought tolerance. Gonna stay high with fertilizer though - if we don't need it, all but the N will still be there the following year. 

Also going to try to hold on to this years corn into next summer to see if I can catch some of that $6 corn while I have some!! Here in the western corn belt, the problem with $6 corn is that it is $6 because we don't have any!

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Re: TID BITS

my problem is trying to recognize if this is a corn rally with "legs" that will take us back past $5 or a mild correction to underpriced product and that the current hype is that "happy horseshut" that always comes out and then fades.

If so many are having record yields, isn't that a good sign that there is NOT going to be a shortage of $4 corn?

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Re: TID BITS

One never knows if the rally has legs, because the weather forecasters are only pretty good at telling you what happened yesterday. Will it stays dry in the western hemisphere? Will corn have to compete for acres due to soy shortage next year? Will China demand stay strong next year?  Who knows?

I try to keep track of my costs/acre (not per bushel, because you never know what your exact yield will be), and then guess at per acre revenue (yield guess x price guess). This tends to work out because yield and price generally move inversely. As I get closer to harvest and get an idea what the yield will be, I watch the market price. I have also decided a minimum price at which I can make decent money. Not great, but acceptable. When the market offers me that price, I sell a little. If it goes up more, I sell a little more. Once the market peaks and starts to go back down, I still sell a little more, until it drops below my minimum. The objective is to not run out before the price peaks, and to sell it all above my minimum. Obviously, it doesn't always work out this way, but that's the plan. Should you adopt my plan?? Heavens no. Should you develop your own plan that works for your operation and takes into account both possibilities - that this is the peak or that the peak is $5 next summer?  That sounds like a good idea. Everyone talks about prices and yield, but profit per acre is the metric that makes a farm business go, in my opinion.

People who try to sell everything at the top often wind up selling everything at the bottom because their banker wants to see cash flow of some kind...

 

PS - one thing I have noticed locally is a lot more winter wheat plantings than usual. Better wheat prices seem to have attracted some usual corn/bean guys to wheat, which they like because it spreads out the workload more compared to a simple corn/bean rotation. 

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Re: TID BITS

The coops are full of beans, none left to harvest, but if I had even a 50 bushel flare box, I`ll call before I`d haul.  To put our bean basis in perspective, cash is $10, in the heat of battle there were 1-2hr lines, a lot of cash beans were contracted for $8.75 by what I would call some normally exceptional marketers.  I think the $10 bill dangled under our noses (when $7 was expected) for the most part cleaned out area farmers bean inventory. 

With corn, if you didn`t get at least 260 bushel corn, don`t waste your breath bragging.  A lot of bins were put up the last 5 years and 12% corn coming out of the field is very storable.  Gavilon at Joice as only one pile and it`s tarped, in that area very few fields of standing corn, miles of worked ground and occasional one that needs picked.  I do know of 3,000 acres of one operation that going there though which will be a nice second pile  Smiley Happy 

Just my opinion, I would be concerned having to sell post-election through the end of the year.  It sure sounds like there will be a "acreage battle" this spring.  Maybe area farmers won`t have physical beans, but it should pull along corn prices of which they`ll have plenty to sell unless it`s already spoken for July delivery.

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