Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Senior Advisor

TIME you still think beans are a short

I thought I was in trouble with my long position last week, you had me scared too since you usually have a decent pulse on market swings.


so far its played out nicely


IMO with the demand we have seen and the bean number probably even more rediciulous than the corn number and a normal august at best, this thing could run


so the real question


lets say wheat does take off, some have been suggesting that and I think you did too.  That will only push more demad to corn and slow the wheat feed bunk


is it possible to see a 3.5-4.0 soybean to corn ratio?


my point is wheat and beans make a run corn has to be drug along


also, more and more scars showing up in this corn crop.  way more talk about disaapointment than joy.  which anyone that knows jack about how to make record corn knows what happened in early May, then mid June, then mid July doesnt equal record corn crop


its going to be good.  but 168-172 on 94M acres is really hard to do.  and 160 is no disaster however it does put things into play especially with everyone and their dog likely betting on major production issues in 2017.


the great news about this low prices, DEMAND IS ON FIRE


now to one last question/comment.  is there any or will there be any election influence?  IE front loaded demand as a hedge against a trump or clinton presidency?

0 Kudos
2 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: TIME you still think beans are a short

you mentioned "demand is on fire"...well our local elevators disagree...and we are seeing very wide basis on the wheat.


i think we're at the point anymore, people will say anything, no matter if it is a lie or not....not only am i seeing that in the market,


but anymore, people in general.  i'm working on a "simple" project, getting a ramp put on a building....i'm about ready to pull my


hair out...anytime you get more than 1 person involved, your going to have a problem.


I sure hope you are right on the wheat price....i've brought some time on post harvest bills, but we need to see wheat start to crawl


out of the hole

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: TIME you still think beans are a short

I don't think I said they were  a short, I tried to say I couldn't find a reason to lift our hedges yet. 


In the guessing category, they are probably a sale at $10.30 or so. But beans are the wild card, terribly out of position, still a Bil spec long bu, but weather can reward the specs if it wants too. 


Wheat is at a historic low most likely. Corn should stabilize just because it is real cheap and it is TIME for it too. If you expect lows in corn in early is early August. We're buying the hog feed, selling some puts, just being conservative is all.

0 Kudos