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unlgrad
Senior Contributor

TOMORROW'S REPORT

Not being confident in my bullish perceptions that the carryover will be lowered tomorrow, I have exited all my long positions right or wrong and purchased a few (8) calls in July corn. No puts, even though 2012 corn might need to be protected in price if 94-96 million acres are projected. Beans, well we got 1 1/2 months of SA weather to watch there and I expect a yawner tomorrow. No big changes on beans.  Any on here want to state what they are doing for tommorrows report. 

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9 Replies
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: TOMORROW'S REPORT

Expecting the worst, hoping for the best and sitting on my thumbs.

 

I still think the increasing world population and large drought area in SA will be the trump card.

 

Euro-zone melt down and Iran are the two biggest flies in the ointment from my low perch in the tree.

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giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: TOMORROW'S REPORT

I will be long for tomorrows report.  I am praying that the report lowers yields on beans and corn and that it lowers carrryout also.  USDA has gotten it wrong before, maybe it gets it wrong on this report.  IT WILL BE A CRAP SHOOT. 

 

If the report is bearish, then I lost some good money. 

 

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: TOMORROW'S REPORT

I'm naturally long (wheat) and have been out of the market since August. I'll do nothing. Report reactions can be very arbitrary and I would never place a bet on the reaction to it one way or another.

 

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unlgrad
Senior Contributor

Re: TOMORROW'S REPORT

I decided to lose the calls and just see how tomorrow shakes out.  I didn't know how much corn or beans from the Turn of the Century just might turn up.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: TOMORROW'S REPORT

usda--no research accurate and always correcting.  The most trusted name in crop reporting-----------------SO EVERYONE GUESSES which way they will be wrong.

I will be guessing how they spin the data to irk me.

 

 

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

OK. Who's better?

And that really is the point. I don't know that anyone can do better on a basis of trying to give definitive reports on a given schedule. And that's the reason we get hung up on it. The argument about the USDA's motives is based on the idea that they really KNOW but won't give it to us straight. I just don't think that flies. These arguments are the same regardless of who is in office and who is appointed.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: OK. Who's better?

Pal,

yes you are right on.  They don't "know".  And that is where I lost confidence.  In years of boring meetings on a monthly basis I have tried to figure out how USDA collects data and projects from that data.  Signup, ins, etc.  I don't see enough research to be accurate.  It is very accurate though that USDA depends heavily on the sheer size of production in the US to make average guessing come close and then relies on the next several reports to adjust.  I do think that honest effort is made by usda and the trade is guilty of over rating the results to create volatility.  Other than reports there is not much job justification left in the Ag budget.

politics------ Both sides have been guilty of delaying signups and payments to make budgets look better and hiding welfare funds in the ag budget, before obama discovered that budgets dont look bad when they don't exist.  There are a lot of things that look bad for an incumbant this year.  My foolish "slap" at politics with the election year comments is a leftover scab from watching every other part of our government( fammy & freddy, justice, labor, entitlements, SS&med, etc. etc) politically raped to buy votes.  A fight to see who gets to distribute the billions we steal from the taxpayer.--------------but USDA, other than demonizing producers and stealing millions with lawsuit threats by minority guilt leaches, is not much of a political tool.   the actual ag budget(less entitlements) is not big enough to be a big target-----except for closure.

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Palouser
Senior Advisor

Re: OK. Who's better?

I assure you that w/o the USDA reports producers would be in a much more difficult marketing position. I used to be a noncooperator regarding reports some years ago until I realized the biggest benificiaries are producers. Large agribiz has had, and still has good intelligence regarding global and domestic situations. W/o the USDA benchmarks producers would be much more exposed to rumor and industry 'politics', both tools for distorting markets at times.

 

I need the history of USDA reports to validate certain relationships that exist in marketing, not only for building my own persppective, but also to be able to expose some of the more blatant claims regarding how the markets work or are not working. They are one of the very best tools for debunking falsehoods. The reports don't have to be exactly right on the very day they are given to verify trends.

 

I can sometimes have some startling facts about what is happening on the ground on the other side of the globe but, I need context and a larger perspective that is fairly dependable to know how much a given piece of information might really mean. The reports help in doing that.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: OK. Who's better?

thanks Pal,

You present tne best argument for maintaining the department.

But when the farm bill of 96 decoupled payments and reporting from actual land use we lost most of the accurate data we had.  I hated that because we had built a wonderful data base over many years.  And we redefined the purpose of the department to meet the latest "catch phrase" and loose the ability to hold onto the urban vote-------Our days are numbered unless we get hungry.

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