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Advisor

Take $1 off SX and add .40 to CZ

And corn is back in the game for 2015. Individual circumstances will vary. Probably a bit less than those figures even.

 

Those prospective levels are less than exciting.

 

http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/manage/2015_crop_budgets.pdf

 

I keep an eye on the Farmdoc C IL Low Yield budgets.

 

At those prices a C/S rotation, or any reasonable one, leaves less than $250 for land cost and operator return.

 

Not a big deal for the old guy farming a few hendred acres of mostly paid for land- actually an opportunity for him to even out his taxses(lol). A serious problem for someone renting thousands at an average price above that figure.

 

Does he play defense and try to not lose too much? I've got no idea and even if I did people will do what they will and there's no telling for sure at this point what the outcome will be.

 

But losing $150/acre on 3000 acres is a pretty sizable hit even fpr people who have seen their NW explode in recent years.

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10 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Take $1 off SX and add .40 to CZ

Yields will suffer........money spent on extra inputs will be much less in 2015.  There are gonna be thousands of acres with just enough to get by dollars spent on them.

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Highlighted
Veteran Contributor

Re: Take $1 off SX and add .40 to CZ

Take $1 off SX and add .40 to CZ....

 

Maybe, but I doubt it...  Report was pretty tame, specs who got into positions pre-report exiting.  As there is nothing here, move on.

 

Start trading demand again.

Honored Advisor

Re: Take $1 off SX and add .40 to CZ

Inappropriate comment

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Senior Advisor

Re: Take $1 off SX and add .40 to CZ

55/45 split corn to beans ratio this year. Very rare to be heavier corn acres than beans usually 60/40 or 65/35 beans to corn so needless to say growing more grow this year

Couple hundred acres of wheat too

$224 and $108 per acre for seed, fert, chem for corn and beans respectively. All inputs locked down and paid

Short of weather getting in the way all systems go

Working on protecting some beans on the board for 15. Let corn ride

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Honored Advisor

Re: Take $1 off SX and add .40 to CZ

Just gonna sit here in the balcony and eat popcorn, pass an adult beverage
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Advisor

Re: Take $1 off SX and add .40 to CZ

Corn is getting mor appealing all the time. I have some ground that has benn in corn three to two years straight. Yields start picking back up that long. Profits more with corn if I can find storage for it.
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Take $1 off SX and add .40 to CZ

I rent several thousand acres and own alot but it's all good ground and I have some good sales on for 2015 so all systems go here been updating more equipment and even trying to buy another piece of ground so it's not all doom and gloom out there if you rent some land and don't just only farm your own paid for land. Oh BTW, I have my annual csp appointment for all my entities tomorrow morning...that's a $120,000 direct deposit in 2 weeks!
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Take $1 off SX and add .40 to CZ

I'm actually a little below you MT on those costs. I own my own sp sprayer and buy all my chemicals from a wholesaler and have a strip till rig with vr application montag cart. This also includes name brand seed and all on 240 bu ground corn 75 beans.

Guys if you want to save money you have to do things yourself! You can't piss and moan about seed cost and then hire coop to put your fertilizer and chemicals on....bottom line. Same goes with your grain handling.
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Senior Advisor

Re: Take $1 off SX and add .40 to CZ

What do you want. A race to the bottom

Could easily cut $50-$60/acre on the corn side and likely $40-$50/ on the bean side if I had too but long term it's not the answer.
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