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Honored Advisor

Talk in the sw........

crops are turning fast..... it's over......... they won't get any bigger now.... If it froze tomorrow would be no big deal for us up on the mountain......   we finished dry the last three weeks and it shows.   

Feedlot news local is that there will not be any wet corn taken in by any of the feedlots in the area......... between the three of Supreme(north of Liberal on Cimmaron River), Henry C. Hitch(se of Guymon Okla), and Hitch #1( north of Optima, Okla)   First time in at least  40 years or more these three haven't siloed wet corn----including 2011 and 2012 when drought took yields away.

That is  5+ million bushels that will not be priced this fall, will go into farmer storage or farmer owned coop storage and be kept out of feedlot control.  Not enough producers would commit to marketing corn at harvest.   

Also it says there are less acres planted across the area.  Much of those acres were large producers who like to get those 200 circles out early to shorten harvest.   As I drive through the area that used to be circle after circle of corn.. I think it is obvious at least that many acres are not there.  Huge cut back in planted acres.... this is the first sign.

Yields will be the next.......... in an area that averages in the 220 to 230 range.....what is there won't be any where near average.  And the dry land acres are not going to be helpful.....  corn being picked dryland soon.  Beans are all turning now and the first fields will be within 10 days.   Sorghum fields went from great to average in the last two weeks hot windy and dry the last three weeks.

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Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: Talk in the sw........

wheat is off to a slow start. Some going into the ground but moisture is disappearing rapidly. Pasture prospects are not promising 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Talk in the sw........

My beans are turning, well, not really, they look that way moreso due to sudden death.  Some combines shelling corn today around here.  Did some appraisals for silage last week -- range from 116 to 224 -- drainage and weed control seemingly had more to do with yield than plant date -- of course, none of that was irrigated, not much irrigated around here.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Talk in the sw........

Thanks wcmo --- a very important bean area and pretty country

 

Clayton I saw the same all the way to kenton on thursday....  The length of the panhandle very little wheat planted,  lots of drills sitting a few seed trucks moving around boise city.  Needing a rain soon to get it started.

Some in and going in  around Liberal where there's been a little more rain.  But may come up spotty.  Too much hot wind.

Beans are done and turning on probably 70% of the fields.

Not a great finish for the fall crops here.  Chance of rain end of this week.

 

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Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: Talk in the sw........

Will   the  grain  trailers  be  roll'n  from  the  North -  Northeast,  your  way ,   to  furnish  the  expected  deficit - ? 

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Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: Talk in the sw........

They typically do anyway. Unit trains also 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Talk in the sw........

Clayton is right on the money...... We usually have the best basis because we feed so much.  

Average year we raise about half to 2/3 what we need.  As the water depletes that number is going down.  drought of 07-12 took the cattle numbers down and we still have feeding facilities either feeding dairy calves or sitting idle.  The big boys are back nearly full but very few custom feeding done these days.  with hogs and dairy picking up the slack we are probably still short feed grains by half....   this is a unitrain destination with lots of that train space going to ethanol byproducts as well as corn from NE,  but I often wonder where it comes from now that Iowa is also a corn deficit state.  A lot rolls in from NW ks since they have been wet for 15 years now. And of course the corn sweet spot in south central Nebraska.  We have three of the beggest producing counties in the nation buy those yields are not what they once were and not as many acres.  There are just a lot of 60k to 150k cattle feedlots between Colby and Amarillo.  

Always difficult to get a grasp on the amount of business conducted in this barron region.... 

For instance Wichita is the closest bean processor ... 250+ miles one way........ To get wheat to a miller we go east -- or to the port of Catoosa.... we go east.   But the cheapest back haul is going east because every day there are bean meal trucks looking for a cargo to go back to the bean plant.  With seaboards three big hog mills  and dairyoppoly going on all around us.  we insanely raise beans and haul them east just to haul them back to a local animal feeder.  

The size of the meat market out here is hard to take in and its been this way since the packers left Omaha and KC.  But Cargill or whomever hasn't had enough incentive to build a plant out this way because we historicly devote all out good production to the starch in the diet and leave the protein growers to the east.  Here in about an hour the tour busses will line up for the kill floor.  One load of 50 fats every 6-10 minutes on schedule all evening long.  Just down the road its hog busses woddling down the ramps on a steady schedule clocking it to preserve freshness.

I figure it is iowa corn on that train unloader cause Iowa ethanol can steal corn from the dakota's cheaper for their ethanol and sell their corn down here to a higher bidder along with some of their distillers grain.  

Odd thing is .... our ethanol plants seem to be the most profitable ..... is it the more expensive corn of the good distillers market??  Or maybe that west coast train trip for the ethanol.??

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Talk in the sw........

What would it take to get a bean crush plant out here?  As you said we send beans east and bring meal west. I think we’d see more bean acres “here” if we had better basis. Like cut out the hauling and add it to bean price. I naively thought/hoped the big central ks coop moving in would help out on basis. As I said. Naively 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Talk in the sw........

Big smiles on your comment.... and a nod......

Seaboard spend a few dollars to buy this defunct cellular plant at Hugoton just to do bio diesel plant...... which will also put on a few miles between the packing plant at Guymon and the bio diesel....... when they already had a small  biodiesel plant in Guymon   Another time (along with the dairy at Plains going growth crazy) and the heifer source feedyard at Liberal.... 

I keep expecting someone to replace the old feed mill in Liberal with bean milling facilities.  It is unbelieveable how much freight is paid daily on 54 highway..... It is in a high need area and fits the water reduction in the region.... makes as much sense as cotton this far north --------- and the market is here.

 

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Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: Talk in the sw........

Union Pacific  serves   Liberal,  Guymon ,  Dalhart ,   while  BN   goes  Garden  City -  Coolidge,   or    Amarillo  to  Clovis  -  -  -

Not  sure  what  unit  rates  are  now  days,  although  might  check  the  numbers  tomorrow   -   -   -       

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