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Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,292
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Talk is cheap

"Even with the Corn Belt’s extremely slow planting progress, the markets aren’t on a straight path higher.

Roger Hugenberg, Ursa Farmer's Cooperative Missouri facilities manager in Canton, Mo., says the 2013 corn crop will have to get a lot smaller before the markets begin to panic.

 

"The supply of corn is short, there’s no doubt about it," he says.

 

But, he says, the reality is USDA is expecting 97 million acres of corn this year.

 

Hugenberg says if you figure 92% of those acres will be harvested then factor in trend-line yields. "We started the beginning of the year talking about a 166 national average yield," he says. "But, you can take that down to 145."

 

He says that equals about 2.5 billion bushels of ending stocks for this year. "That is about four times as much corn available to market as we have today," he says, which creates some significant downside risk.

 

The good news, he says, is the market doesn’t need that big of a crop"

 

Probably a good thing as we are on track to not have a bin buster again, or trendline yields, or 97 million acres.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 3,058
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Talk is cheap

Turn me on to the quality of CRACK he's smokin', then we'll ALL be good.Smiley Wink

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,477
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Talk is cheap

I'll start by letting him in on a little secret.............The 2013 US corn crop IS getting smaller.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 315
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Talk is cheap

I wouldn't ridicule him to much. Even if you take planted acres down to 90 million acres times his 145 yield you get a 12 billion bu crop which if demand stays the same next year as  this  year which is estimated to be below 12b bu  mark carry over will be about the same.

Senior Advisor
Posts: 4,440
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
0

Re: Talk is cheap

Adjust for harvested acres and repost your figures. Getting smaller yet.
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 3,058
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Talk is cheap

[ Edited ]

I think NDf got prod figured correct, but Roger's calling for 2.5 Bil end stocks?????????????

 

The misnomer is USDA is saying demand will go back up into "more normal" ranges next year to hide what we don't have this year..............yet Roger is assuming demand remains at these "fabricated" LOW levels of THIS mktg yr.

 

you have to work backwards to see the slight of hand.

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 112
Registered: ‎09-22-2011
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Re: Talk is cheap

I would say that what this guy states is very accurate and part of the reason the market hasn't reacted too much yet.  The biggest drop we have ever had (aside from the PIC year) in planted acres is around 4%.  97 million intended and 96% of that planted would be a little north of 93 million planted.  92% of that harvested would be about 86 million harvested.  At 145 BPA that would be 12.5 billion bushels.  We have a lot of wiggle room before we get into trouble with carryout.  It is obviously possible that we go sub 145 and things get tight, but I'm not banking on it yet. 

Senior Contributor
Posts: 315
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Talk is cheap

For shaggy:  90 x.92= 82.8 x 145 = 12 b bushels. Like whats been said before if demand doesn't recove we don't need any where close to 97m acres planted.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 3,058
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Talk is cheap

point is, being illuded in the "stooges" vortex is what the game's about......

 

USDA ALREADY has demand "recovered" on balance sheet........... READ BETWEEN THE LINES!!!

Advisor
Posts: 479
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
0

Re: Talk is cheap

We are not losing anything of significance yet. As I said early March, the drought is over and the crop will be big. Time will tell!