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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Ted Seifried MtoM

Paul Yeager was needling him on why farmers aren`t picking 30% corn.  I know "phantom loss" is on everyone`s mind, Farm Journal did an article on it.  Kind of the way I look at it (for easy figuring) let`s say you wait and combine 15% corn and it yields 200 bushel or you combine 25% corn and get 15 bu better 215.  Okay 3¢ pt drying 30¢/bu, about $60/acre for an extra 15 bushel.  $4/bushel is what the extra drying costs for the hopeful extra bushel.  Yeah combining early "makes" you $22.50 per acre, that is if the phantom is bad as advertised.  

Seems to me you might split the difference to combine at 18-20% .  And if you`re trying to win a yield contest, then it may be work it to eat the drying for higher yield bragging rights.  But an individual situation, unless all the ducks line up, you`re trading LP gas and extra handling for a few more bushel.  Heck of it is, the extra "15 bushel/acre" goes right on the carryover ledger of USDA`s balance sheet.  If 80 million acres pick up or lose 5 bushel per acre , that swings the carryover 400 million bushel one way or another....better off if we all just let the phantom have it instead of putting a clearance sale sign on all our bushels.  My 2¢

Here`s the Market Plus link, Ted is pretty good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=InPULK_ncwU

BTW. they promote "early early early" harvest.  However when you look at the latest greatest new combines, run by company experts at a farm show, seems that wet stuff leaves 10% kernels still on the cob, well that`s a "phantom" too.

 

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8 Replies
wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Re: Ted Seifried MtoM

"phantom" is kinda a like a true conspiracy. 

It never existed. 

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Ted Seifried MtoM

 Paul -  pricing  propane  lately,  or  dryer  parts  ?   80+  degrees   solar  drying  is  in  progress ,  and  I  can  here  it  now - DRIVER  $HORTAGE  on  LP  commodity - - -   

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Ted Seifried MtoM

I`m thinking my corn won`t need much drying by the time I`m done with the beans. And 16% won`t be be bad, it`s when it gets to 13% corn and it looks like Pillsbury flour dust, that`s no fun.

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rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Re: Ted Seifried MtoM

BA, I am currently combining 20.5% corn, with very little field loss, and nice shelling. If I could combine all of my corn right now, and pay the LP and electricity, I would at this level. With 80 degree weather forecast all week, probably will just be binning corn direct by next monday, but with lots of losses. Last year was the exception....I was combining corn the first week of December, no lodging, 15.5% moisture, excellent condition. This years wind and drought damaged corn wont be around for December, let alone most of November. Needs to come out.

As far as "Phantom" losses on the 225 bu corn yield.....here is the rub. You are always going to lose more corn as it dries to harvesting damages, just common sense. Elevators even recognize the additional losses in drying and handling, by assessing 1.4 % shrink vs. the  1.0 percent in a perfect world. 30 percent corn, shrunk to 13 percent by an elevator's formula will lose an additional 6.8 percent or 15 bushels of drying shrink if their argument is correct and they are not just ripping us a new one.

So I agree with the "phantom losses" to an extent...in a perfect world, hand shelled corn at 30 percent, and solar dried afterwards, will probably give you an additional 5 percent yield, but I don't live in a perfect world. And I have spent very little on drying in the last 10 years, and had high quality 200 bushel corn. This year I am paying for drying and trying to get the stuff out as best I can. 

Wind
Advisor

Re: Ted Seifried MtoM

Well said, rsbs.  Our first corn went out at 21%, shelled very easy off the cob with very little field loss.  Kept the combine speed down to 3.5 -4 mph.  232 bu. per A.  Stalk quality was not the best.  It was time to go.  Had 89* on Sunday and upper 80's forecast next few days.  67* this morning with only 61% humidity. 9% beans will be pinging off the windshield  the next few days.   I sure is a joy to harvest this years crop compared to last years  Derecho ravaged crops.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Ted Seifried MtoM

Yes, with this weather, by the time I get to the corn in 10 days, it`ll be from mid 20s down to mid teens. Stalk quality here so far is good, though a 50mph wind wouldn`t be fun.  It`ll be what it`ll be and more than I deserve   🙂

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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: Ted Seifried MtoM

Sure.

I think the basis plays are mostly drying up.

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wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Basis suggests

Cash is headed higher.  MO. 

Areas were basis is normally minus 80 to $1 running minus 20 to flat Cash this year.  And some areas are plus 50 to plus 85 where feeding etc is rolling. 

Either way corn costing 6 to 6.25 delivered in quite a few areas.