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Honored Advisor

Re: Thanks Ben!

ditto to JR,  was a good post Gored.

 

not much thinking done in a grocery store(or the ballot box)----------------"the evidence is in the cart"

 

My son has lived in 5 states in the last 15 years-----a job thing------------He claims he is eligable to vote in 4 states.-----joking.

 

This primary election he went to the local voting place while visiting us,  found his name, and voted.  He left his Ks residence in 1997.   

There are 5000 residence in our county.  One would think the county clerk could find the time to do her job.--update voter registrations

SYMPATHY is part of what got her and obama elected------

They are on opposite sides of the ticket, neither side wants to think too much-----------------I can tell you with 60% accuracy what moved the grain market last week, but I haven't got a clue what moves voters in mass.  

Maybe it's "Jennifer" on some America's go no talent TV show, or the latest I phone app.-----(A large voting block has got no brains)--------- we just love to cheer and watch someone cry.

 

not much thinking done in a grocery store----------------"the evidence is in the cart"

 
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Senior Advisor

Re: Thanks Ben!

I believe you have been convinced the only approach is a one dimensional approach.  First, jobs are a legal duty for the Fed. Second, the QE is not simply printing  $$$$. They are used to buy assets. If the Fed effort helps the economy those assets can be sold. It's not just money printed and handed out. That is an over simplistic judgment, and usually an idelogiccal judgment.

 

I will add that inflation is not a necessary result by any means. And not a likely result in these circumstances.

 

I don't know if any more than what's been done can/will be done by the Fed but, Congress is absolutely derelict. It is constitutionally necessary for the House to determine legislation that requires funding. The President is not the prime authority on budget according to the Constitution. The House needs to get off its ass - for a fact!  More can be done but gridlock is the current strategy adopted by the opposition. It will never work to solve the current issues.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Ideology as Kool Aid

Logically, you can't prove a negative. But for starters think about what got us out of the Depression through no choice of our own. 

 

There is no question in my mind that the financial gears almost froze up, and once frozen, with no intervention, economic fluidity for a modern economy as we know it would have disappeared. Some might have gotten their wish to go back to hard currency, or more like barter. You would have had a hard time financing the operation of your dairy. Your coops would have been left high and dry with no credit or financing (much less, receivables) and by the time a new cash system was figured out your cows would have long ago been eaten. Most businesses would have suddenly been worth nothing in any modern context. You think about this.

 

We were within a wisker of going down. We'd have been in a situation of reinventing the wheel for capital flow and credit. You tell me how it would have been done. I'll guarantee you that regional, national and global monetary action would have vaporized and trying to start it all up again would have taken YEARS, if ever, to get back to where we are now, even if you think NOW is too crummy for you.

 

Be careful what you wish for.

 

I am for restructuring banks and financial institutiojns. Guess who's not!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Ideology as Kool Aid

What got us out of the great depresion was world war 2.

 

IT actually is harder to finance the dairy operation today than it was in 08.  Google dairy financing and you will find that Wells Fargo is running away so fast that they can't get out of their own way.

 

As to the freezing up part. This is just silly.  proves that the rush for central control has proved to only fill the needs of the elite and powerful.  DO you really think that I woldn't have been able to get rid of my milk without the use of a greenback?

 

As to are we better off in this current climate do you realize the baltic dry index closed at 662 fri. This is one point lower than at the worst in 2008.

 

Wake up we have fallen apart. THe train is off the tracks!

 

As to your statement about the restructuring of the banks guess what?  I am all for it. As to who isn't well that list is long and large.  Both parties are at the top by the way. 

 

But don't blame me I voted for Ron Paul!  Lost that one,  now I think I will waste my vote on Virgil Goode. Better than throwing up in Public while I vote for either of the other options.

 

We need a good ole fashioned bank run!  There is such an undercurrent of distrust and anger in this country right now that at some point it will bust out. When it does look out! It just won't be at the ballot box alone it is gonna be in the streets as well.

 

Senior Advisor

Re: Ideology as Kool Aid

Yes, I DO think you would have had a hard time getting rid of your milk had the credit system remained frozen up - at least in terms of a normal way of doing business. I'll assume you are using a coop to process and distribute your milk. I know how these entities work on a day to day with the books and credit. Virtually everyone's receivables would have instantly become worthless on a practical level. The follow on effects would have been almost instantaneous as everyone quit doing business unless it was cash on the barrelhead. Nobody would have access to cash all about the same time. No employee checks, no fuel to run trucks, no more needed ingredients or supply - everyone would freeze in an attempt to preserve themselves and not show a bigger deficit on the books than already was underway. This all would have been mutually destructive behavior BUT, there would be NO OTHER OPTIONS! Name one! By the time it was figured out an enormous amount of milk would have turned to waste.

 

NOW, try and unwind all this stuff w/o intervention from the heavens. NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. Had it gone that far government, banks and the powers that be would have had to make arrangements for some kind of credit for virtually every business in existence at a cost that would MAYBE been as great as big fraction of the GINORMOUS amount of CDSs out there that had ALL turned to complete toast!  It would have been WORSE than the G Deppresion because everything is more instantaneous and globally connected. TRADE would have stopped. Stopped! No one would be able to guarantee ANY payments.

 

You don't buy this? Then talk to someone who really knows the nuts and bolts of how daily credit is used in modern business.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Ideology as Kool Aid

I don't thinkpeople realize how close we were to an economic catastrophe at the end of 2008. For the most part credit was locked up. Even giants like McDonalds was anxious about getting operating capital. Yeah you think a long term successful business such as that would be self financing. Not so! they must have thought they could always borrow given their strong business model.

 

Company came will add later.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Ideology as Kool Aid

Like Mitt thinking that GM should go bankrupt and private capital would invest in the rubble and build anew. Not so! was nobody to invest in GM. NObody wanted any risky ventures and the venture capital had dried up. All banks owed each other and they were fiercely protective of their assets and unwilling to risk more.

 

It wouldn't have been one or two banks folding but all of them because they were so financially entertwined. And if AIG had folded that would have caused a global collapse.

 

The stimulus is nothing more than a starter fluid. You don't expect to run your engine on starter fluid but it may take more than two squirts before the engine runs smoothly. The big question is whether you do something or nothing. I don't think nothing is a logical option.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Ideology as Kool Aid

The panic of 2008 probably needed some sort of intervention.


However, history tells us that the US comes out of a recession better if the government does nothing, than if it tries to 'help'.

 

Continuing the band-aid fixes, does not cure the problem.

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Senior Advisor

Whose history are you reading?

I'll call you on that assertion every day of the week.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Whose history are you reading?

What did Grover Cleveland and Warren Harding do, in times of national financial hardship, and what were the results?

 

Can you name a policy that FDR implemented that eased the Great Depression?

The Great Depression was ended by WWII, not by government social programs.

 

Here is a quote from FDR's Treasury Secretary, on spending and unemployment:

 

 Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau complained, “We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work.”

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