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Veteran Contributor

The Boys who Cried Wolf

Here we go trying to explain the unexplainable.  I feel that the #s given out are not diabolically created to hurt farmers we are just not believed when things really are bad. You won't believe how many mouth drops I get when I tell someone I had a good year, or I think that farming is better than any other occupation in our rural area. At least a dozen times the response is,,"I have never heard a farmer admit to things being OK".

 

When Illinois got dry 5-6 years ago and this forum was wall to wall crop failure, we found out that 170 was a failure to you guys and USDA had to correct to the upside.  Now after last year you know what a failure can be. USDA will not believe a negative report until it has measurable data. Last yr in August they moved lower, but really moves after harvest began. The computers and those who program assume normalcy until proven otherwise.  We said we would plant 97 million, so until it is verifies less, that is our #. Iowa has never left land idle so they can't fathom it happening.

Now we cry wolf they don't believe us. Another ? Over the he years I have seen thus forum as bad crop=post. Good crop=crickets.    We are hearing crickets from Illinois. Nebraska. Ohio and southeast.  There are good crops and other are failures. I personally have a chance of a great crop but need another 2 weeks of rain to fill out. My state doesn't equal one Iowa county so we will see if it matters. 

If we truly are sub 12 billion than this next month should help stabilize our livestock herds and start usage in a way that prices must go up later to curb use. Pulling back the bow harder will make the arrow go further when released.  We need $6 corn, but it might take $4.50 now to bring it back this fall.

Moral of the story, USDA claiming a record crop that doesn't materialize may be in our long teem interest. I don't have corn to deliver right now so I could care less the price. September will be the timeframe for me. Go lower now so we can correct harder in August.

 If we truly grow and 13.5billion + than I won't believe any of you wolf screamers any more either!!

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: The Boys who Cried Wolf

The USDA can report 13 or 14 billion bushel crop........That doesn't mean that it is really there.          Smiley Wink

 

 

It will probably be said to be in a pile in Minnesota though.................Smiley Happy

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Senior Contributor

Re: The Boys who Cried Wolf

Iowa will leave acres unplanted and that is no joke. It doesn't matter to the report yesterday. After reading Darrel Good explanation of how this report started the survey on June 1st, I can cut USDA some slack on its numbers. On June 1, a lot of acres were still going to be planted. Didn't happen. Just how many? Good question but when you take a drive just through Winnebago county, one starts to see a lot of weedy, unplanted fields. Every mile has at least one quarter left idle. It's sad......MikeM
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Veteran Contributor

Re: The Boys who Cried Wolf

I would agree with you, but I just flipped my calender over! I have been looking at MAY all along it is actually JUNE 29th! Out my back door, too my knowledge there is very few acres that will tossil in the next 2 weeks. The balance is looking at the last part of July for tossil.

Let's turn this around and say what if there is a hidden agenda to actually run the pipeline dry with bogus consecutive Nos. released to drive prices down.

Alot of economic earthquakes in the past 2 weeks.

In whose interest is lower prices really in?

My personal perspective is farmers will utilize ALL of those new shiney tanks built throughout the country side if prices are below $6.00 and $12.00 at harvest. Too much invested in this crop to take anything less. Soooo... to the commercial elevator you either bid up, or you get by with the small percentage that has no storage and must haul it to town this fall. Or....If we truly run dry with a short crop this year,and  farmers are tight fisted,due to being cash flush from 2012's high income.

The economy crashes due to QE dispersments ending, the government declares martial law at the impending civil unrest and the grain is seized under the patriot act. You get nothing!

Just some morning second cup of coffee thoughts. "Plan for the worst, Hope for the best"

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Veteran Contributor

Re: The Boys who Cried Wolf

How many of those acres did mother nature unplant?

That is the 64 million dollar or should I say 13b or 11b bu. question.

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Honored Advisor

Re: The Boys who Cried Wolf

averages with expected improvement.   Based on years of averages with expected improvement.  After two years they become assumed fact.  Then we base the next year on them.  ------------------------ all the while accuracy protected by surplus.  Decent carry numbers and a little corn left keeps  us from actually counting anything. 

That is why the carry number cannot go to 0 or below even though we do import.

 

easy to see without a surplus pile sitting in the way.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: The Boys who Cried Wolf

Why do you think you are getting Crickets from Illinois?  Two reasons.  1) Northern Illinois and north central Illinois has a lot of really good looking corn.  2) Central and southern Illinois has a lof of really crappy looking corn and those guys aren't about to come on here and talk about it because as soon as they do people like you will start with the "Illinois Crybaby" business.  It kind of seems like you guys don't want to hear from Illinois if it is just Illinois having an issue, but if the whole cornbelt is having trouble you want us to chime in and help the cause of perpetuating a crop failure.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: The Boys who Cried Wolf

Fringe, I still have a hard time believing we planted 97 million acres of corn this year. I farm on the Michigan/Indiana line and I have not seen any corn on corn acres planted this year... Typically we have a few fields in the area go back to corn here, but last years drought changed the minds of many I think. On the topic of "The boys who cried wolf" you have to remember that we are talking about the guys in Iowa. To be honest, its very hard to believe an Iowa farmer when they say there crop is in bad shape. A bad crop to an Iowa producer may mean they harvest 180 bushel corn instead of 210 bushel corn.... Its just the way it is, they farm the best ground on earth and usually have favorable weather to work with, so usually they are not the ones getting the short end of the stick. I do not wish a bad year on anybody, it will however be interesting to see how well the US produces without some of its best ground in production this year.

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