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Honored Advisor

The Bunge Bluff

Well Bunge WEST removed 20 cents basis end of last week. This morning half of it found it's way back into the bid +25 right now (beans). I have to wonder if it shook more beans loose or just stopped the flow of beans?

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Honored Advisor

Re: The Bunge Bluff

DJ Russia Sells 60,075 Tons Intervention Grain at Feb. 5 Tender
Grigori Gerenstein - DJ - 18 mins ago

MOSCOW--The Russian government sold 60,075 metric tons of grain at an intervention tender held Feb. 5. The following amounts of grain have been sold to date since intervention tenders began Oct. 23:

Volume (tons)   Average price 
                                                               (rubles/ton) 
   Soft milling wheat 3rd grade, harvest 2008    1,036,315          8,277 
   Soft milling wheat 4th grade, harvest 2008      126,300          8,384 
   Soft milling wheat 3th grade, harvest 2009      368,314          8,427 
   Soft milling wheat 4th grade, harvest 2009       31,725          7,947 
   Soft milling wheat 3th grade, harvest 2011        5,805          9,358 
   Soft milling wheat 4th grade, harvest 2011       56,005          9,355 
 
                                           Total 1,624,464

OK what are they selling? 3rd and 4th grade? is that barely feed grade or is it an inverted scale? Some of it is 3 to 4 years old, is it all bug eaten moldy or what? I've read they will be importing bread making quality this spring.

 

The agriculture ministry decided earlier last year to hold grain intervention sales from Oct. 23, selling 1 million tons of wheat, both milling and feed varieties, in the regions of the Urals, Siberia, and the far east of the country to stabilize prices and replenish grain stocks there after a poor drought-hit harvest.

The ministry said the grain would be sold at a rate of 130,000 tons a week. The government's grain intervention fund currently totals 4.751 million tons. As of Nov. 6, millers and animal feed producers in all the regions of Russia have been able to participate in the intervention tenders.

Russia's agriculture ministry expects the 2012 grain harvest to total 71.7 million tons, and grain exports in the 2012-13 marketing year to be between 10 million tons and 12 million tons. In 2011, Russia harvested 94.2 million tons of grain and in the 2011-12 marketing year it exported 27.2 million tons.

The ministry said Jan. 24 it was planning to sell nearly 3 million metric tons of grain at intervention tenders between now and the end of the current marketing year June 30. The ministry said at this time the grain intervention reserve held 3.33 million tons of grain.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: The Bunge Bluff

I used to know a guy who liked to play poker, but he played exactly the same way all the time...

 

He was very popular with the other players and they would send a car and driver to pick him up, even here in south Iowa..

 

If the only thing the buyer does is increase the basis, he has just given a nice "tell" to the sell side

 

Enjoy the game....

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Highlighted
Contributor

Re: The Bunge Bluff

4th class is 11.5/12.5 protein on dry matter basis (25 gluten min), 3rd class is 13.5protein with 27gluten (ISO)  

Stocks which russia is selling is mixed crop, not particularly good quality, and definately not for export as sold to local millers/feeders only...

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Contributor

Re: The Bunge Bluff

Keep in mind prices for 3rd grade milling wheat are close to 430USD/MT in russia inland.

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Honored Advisor

Re: The Bunge Bluff

This is the second time they have done this in the last month or so. They did not do it at Morristown Grain in Indiana this time. Just seems to be a Bunge West thing this time. The internet has some uses for us South Podunk hillbillies.

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Honored Advisor

Re: The Bunge Bluff

vz: thank you, I'm not a wheat guy. (yet)

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Contributor

Re: The Bunge Bluff

No problem, Black sea wheat/corn is what i do day in day out, so free to ask...

Main point is, there is not going to be any more wheat coming out of russia unless prices rocket 20/30% from where they are now. Russia is importing, not exporting....

Yesterday there was an official request lodged to cancel the import duty (5pct)  expecting that to be ine in the next few weeks.

 

Senior Advisor

Re: The Bunge Bluff

Hobby --- Ray put a VERY good post --- Back a month or two about this , -- believe it was on corn ,  a guy had a trget price in mind and was only like a nickel or so away , Ray said that it may take a run in the market of 20 or 30 cents or someting like that = as the pice went up they lower the basis .

To me that said is they can or bid only what somebody is willing to pay , or for the end user to still make money .

 

Ray , am I close an what you posted ?

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: The Bunge Bluff

BTW Still at plus 30 on beans here --- Fall        - .32 -- dang that's a .62 cent swing !

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