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10-09-2012 09:06 AM
Last week Sec. of Labor Hildi Solis claimed she was insulted when a number of prominant people said they did not believe unemployment report. Well I have news for you Hildi, about 70% of my farmer friends believe the crop production and supply and demand reports are skewed either to control prices or for political reasons. Ag Sec. Vilsack should be the most insulted person in Washington.
Speaking of insults, I saw a youtube video of Obama giving a speech where he claimed his father fought in WWII. His father was 25 years old at the time of his birth. The war years were from 1939-1945. That would mean his father was ages 3-9 during the war.
Should we believe this?
10-09-2012 10:07 AM
What ever would be the motivation to knowingly produce an inaccurate report? Who would be doing that and why? Is it just during democrat adminsitrations or do republican administrations do it as well?
I don't doubt for a minute that there are inaccuracies, but conspiracy enthusiasts abound in the farm communities. The president is out to "get' you. The Usda is out to "get' you and now the bureauof statistics is out to "get' you. Wholesale paranoia abounds.
10-09-2012 10:10 AM - edited 10-09-2012 10:11 AM
No piece of data, released by washington, is more manipulated over the years than unemployment numbers. we redefine and reformulate till it looks like we want. This one was based on a phone survey??
10-09-2012 10:20 AM
santelli said it best this AM..............another good vid............."you can't get three people to agree on a car accident description"..................LMAO............
10-09-2012 10:24 AM
There are over 20 companies making estimates for the crop. I'd ask my friends which one they believe if the USDA numbers aren't good enough. Surely they would have an informed opinion. I just looked at the list. Informa is at one end and Stone is the other way.
When you find out the concensus let me know which company I should follow.
10-09-2012 10:29 AM
Let me beat you to the punch this time. My statement is not correct. While the unemployments numbers are very manipulated, ei do we count part time college students, or their tutors, or their tutors dog walker, part time summer interns, on and on.
There is a figure released by washington which is much worse. "The cost of living index" ---------the all time hocus pocus of manipulation and redefinition.
The labor sec. reads from the script.
10-09-2012 10:38 AM
Pal, good point. The problems with private companies and their numbers is the bias and the desire to move the market to help their current marketing plan. The numbers from the USDA on stocks don't worry me as much as when they do yield projections. That 166 last year really hurt credibility. Not saying it could not have happened, but that was just too much pie in the sky.
I have always said if they released crop acres as reported to the local FSA office in a timely manner just like car sales are reported it would help.
Bash the USDA all you want, over time, they haven't been that far off most years. Just sometimes, when they miss, they miss big.
Which gets back to rain. We used every bit of subsoil moisture to pull of the crop we did get this year in most places. The eastern belt is getting some rains, but we need BIG rains this fall and spring for the 2013 crop. We are so far behind. It can still work, a wet year next can take care of the issue. And we all know how quick weather can change. But, right now the 2013 crop is only a promise backed up with an IOU.
10-09-2012 11:00 AM
The numbers differ from reporting group to reporting group, except the USDA numbers are traced/followed from report to report, so yes, they do mean something. Unemployment numbers are no different. I, for one, am glad the unemployment numbers are going down.