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Veteran Advisor

The Lord works in mysterious ways...........

I didn't go to churchs this morning, it was below freezing with the wind chill factor, and hearing the wind howeling, I just couldnt

get my tired and aching bones out of bed to get ready.....but I feel guilty....this might have been such a day that there could have been

inspiration.......luckly one posts a video the next day.

 

Let's just be blunt about it, this has not been a good week for many......as far as that's concern, this hasn't even been a good year, and

it isn't even over half done !!

 

big fires have set some people back, and in some cases, too far back to come back......now the weather, too much rain, too cold, etc.

last few hours I've scanned the wx and ag info......not good......HRW wheat has been really hit......it wasn't in all that good of shape

to start.  Corn......good chances of corn planted is injured, either too much rain, or ground too cold.  Looking at the mesonet data for iowa,

ground temps are not good......but supposed only 8% done

a lot of chatter going about replant, how much the seed company and insurance company will pay..........but it will be a week

before we get back and going, plus getting seed shipped in.......and in the high precipition situation, n has been leached down, and

I doubt many will go back in and "invest" more into the crop to reapply the N.......

cattle......i'm getting horror stores out of the tx and ok panhandle right now.....add on the fire damage........

 

I remember a few years ago, I got called to a house fire, it was a loss.....there was a young lady with two small children, both children

parished in the fire...I arrived shortly after the call........due to wearing several different "hats", it was me who worked with her......

She had a single question........why.......................

Folks, there is no answer to that.........same with all the folks that are now hurting.

Why would god allow this ?

the answer is.........there is no answer is........

the best I can do is to barrow a line from our catholic friends.......it's a Marvelous Mystery

There is a reason, but we are not perfect, therefore we do not understand, sometime we will understand when we

go to the great beyond.........but that doesn't help with things in the here and now.

 

This cold snap might help the wheat people, in that the price SHOULD go up....and for quite a few, they could get insurance, which

has more value than the crop price......but for some of those folks, they have got insurance for several years, and the yield part has

gone down.

 

For the corn people, this SHOULD make a price bounce, since there will be replants needed, and the corn crop will be later,

but then the added cost of a second seeding, and perhaps a lower yield due to all of this, will the "supposed" price increase

make up the difference ?

 

for those folks in the SW and the panhandles.......I am like I was the night when I got called with the lady that lost 2 children in

the fire...between the fire, bad crop conditions, bad crop condtions for several years due to drought, and low a late blizzard......

there is no magic phrase I can say, no sage words of wisdom I can utter......just we are here.

 

tonights opening cry on the boards will be telling.

 

it will tell us if "the" market get's it, or not.......

 

 

 

 

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6 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: The Lord works in mysterious ways...........

Well ElCheapo, we are ALL sinners unworthy of Heaven, the ONLY person to`ve walked the earth without sin was Jesus and look at what happened to Him.   Bad things happen to "good people", God gave us freewill so we can`t just pray for a million dollars or for the rain to stop or for the fires to end and it automatically happens like Moses parting the Red Sea...how would God know that we love Him if He just spoiled His believers (atheists will see that as a cop out and that is why they are atheists, they want free stuff and will only extend the effort for free stuff in return). 

 

 

Too often it seems people think they`re without sin just because they don`t "rob banks" or use the "f-bomb" ....Smiley Happy there`s a lot more to it than that.  We all sin a lot and the heck of it is many do not realize how badly they are sinning, they are totally ignorant....(I`ll gladly tell you on the forum page, where this will probably shortly end up  Smiley Happy  ) 

 

Though Kirk promotes the "rapture deal"  he is pretty good here about the 10 Commandments.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uYBAGTXxMQ

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Veteran Advisor

Supply

I have to totally disagree that current weather HAS to move corn prices higher.  There is so much corn grown all over the world that any area can have a supply problem and unless it's a massive one it may not move the market much.  I very clearly remember the drought in Ill and SE IA in 2015 which left me quite a bit short on corn and didn't move the market to any extent that I recall.

 

Oh, no doubt it can have some small local repercussions, mostly in the basis, but why would a local problem cause a global reaction?

 

I hope there is a rally, because I have orders in place to sell into it, but if it doesn't come or isn't much I would not be surprised.  In other words, I'm not going to bet the farm on a rally.

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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Supply

"There is so much corn grown all over the world that any area can have a supply problem and unless it's a massive one it may not move the market much"

 

Really Jim,,,,  lets at least be close to accurate   That world market stuff may be true for wheat, or beans, but it is just not true for corn.  

 

When the worlds second largest producer does not export,, china.    A true look at production says brazil, argentina and Mexico combined produce less than 15% of the worlds corn while the US and china produce nearly 60% of the worlds corn--- US 36% China 22% ---------- But when we look at the exportable corn produced world wide. the US holds 54+% of all the available corn in the world.

 

Only usda pretends that south american corn in Volume is enough to sway the corn markets with argentina producing less than 3 % and Brazil at 6%       It is a common slight of hand diversion made by the trade and usda....

 

 

chart of note_1.jpg

 

63ab026fdb408ad23de66070d3fed79a.jpg

 

 

WORLD CORN CONSUMPTION, 2010-2011*

South Africa     421
Egypt               496
Canada             504
Japan                634
India                720
Mexico            1,224
Brazil               1,901
EU-27              2,303
China               6,378
Others              6,854
U.S.                 11,480
Total               32,915 Million Bushels
 
Source:  USDA FAS Grain:  World Markets and Trade, January 14, 2011
Advisor

someone needs to take the "Advisor" tag off of Jim's

Profile.   Just saying.   A legend in his own mind.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: someone needs to take the "Advisor" tag off of Jim's

I couldn't disagree more.  I have been involved in this forum for many years, through many format changes and many times when usernames had to be reset.  I haven't been around much lately because frankly the marketing discussion group threads seem to gravitate towards blaming USDA for fake numbers and complaining that the funds are in complete control of the markets.  When I first started visiting the marketing page I was looking for ideas for actual marketing strategies.  In my opinion Jim provides thoughtful commentary that is usually well reasoned.

Veteran Advisor

Re: someone needs to take the "Advisor" tag off of Jim's

The advisor thing is based on the number of posts.

 

My point on the corn is that it's the corn at the margin - the excess - that moves the market.  

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