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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

The Nickel: Soybean carryover

Does it justify today`s prices?    If you go from 2011 to 2016 the US carryover and world carryovers were a bit lower than the 21-22 projection and those were mostly lean years .     Compare 2013-14 US carry was 100M bu and world was 500MMT      2018-19 was 1.1 billion bushel US and 110 MMT global  (firing on all cylinders for yields that year)  2021-22 is 285 billion bushel Global at 90 MMT.  

Not that I`m complaining but from a inventory standpoint on beans, we are similar to 2014.  There must be a lot of risk premium in the market.


Oh Bobby! This cattle buyer was cashing bum checks at Tama, he was a regular at Algona with a girlfriend half his age.   


TAMA — A Pomeroy livestock dealer with a history of forgery has been charged with felony theft and fraud as a result of allegedly stealing a load of cattle and writing a bad check at the Tama Livestock Auction in excess of $10,000 following an investigation by the Tama Police Department.  

of Pomeroy made an initial appearance in Tama County district court on Feb. 20 on charges including three counts of first degree theft and one count of fraudulent practice — all Class C felonies.

According to court documents, charges in the case stem from incidents which took place between Jan. 19 and Jan. 26.

– who operates **** Livestock – bid a total of $17,041.25 on 18 head of cattle on Jan. 26 at the Tama Livestock Auction in Tama and allegedly loaded the animals without paying for them. They were then sold to another individual.

At the time of the sale, **** had allegedly already issued a bad check to Tama Livestock Auction on Jan. 19, in the amount of $30,313.60 which, according to the criminal complaint, was for 30 head of cattle

The investigation began on Feb. 2 when Tama Livestock Auction owner Jason Lekin reported the Jan. 19 bad check to the Tama Police Department.

Lekin indicated to police he had contacted **** multiple times and been assured the check was good. ****, however, allegedly then asked Lekin to hold the check until a certain date for deposit. It was sent for deposit on Jan. 20.

According to trial documents, the check was drawn on the **** Livestock account of **** at the First Community Bank in Newell. The check was not paid when presented.

On March 1, **** posted a cash bond in the amount of $500 and was released from custody after having his release conditions amended. Arraignment is set for March 24, at 9 a.m.

**** is a habitual offender as a result of having two prior felony convictions including a felony drug conviction in Oklahoma in 2003, a felony forgery conviction in Oklahoma in 2008, and a felony forgery conviction in Calhoun County in June of last year.

In the Calhoun County case, **** forged a series of checks in his ex-girlfriend’s name and attempted to deposit the checks, according to the criminal complaint. Attorney Allan M. Richards of Tama is representing ****  in the current case.

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5 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: The Nickel: Soybean carryover

As I'm just a small time "hobbyfarmer" by todays standards. Not sure my diagnosis of this thing is worth much.

Yes today's prices are justified.

I'm not sure how much free stocks are left. Corn or beans.

Lot of April contracts to be delivered. Then many on farm bins will just be spider habitat.

Local Eplant tried the sell a call, double up thingy. Their phones we not ringing off the wall a few hrs later.

Said they were just trying to procure bushels.

ADM in Lincoln , Ne and Rock Port, Indiana have way better bean bids than Des Moines.

Don't have a clue about the first two but Des Moines is staying full.

Could easily get to that magical 100 mil bu pipeline # by Sept.

I know if I had Rockports bean bid I'd dump another 10,000 bu just because...depending on the month $16.7something is a very nice nieghborhood.



Senior Contributor

Re: The Nickel: Soybean carryover

After going through the inverse and widening the basis to get some knee jerk sales Decatur has narrowed back on -4 corn and -12 on beans  7.08 16.38 local bids Tate and lyle a little weaker  bids as of Friday

Direct bids +32 corn 7.44  and  +10 beans 16.56 .....I would say they still are wanting corn 

We have a dry profile but got around and inch the other night with more on the way

Not sure how much is left on the farm but very little traffic coming inbound at the elevator

Talking to Fert man and was surprised to hear a fair amount of guys still had nitrogen to put on at spring price

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: The Nickel: Soybean carryover

DW, I`m thinking this summer there will be more empty bins than USDA has been counting.  It could get wild.

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: The Nickel: Soybean carryover

I will be surprised to NOT see soybeans trade at $20 or more this summer on any "scares". Corn will be probably even more volatile.

And if a "Big one" gets launched, the markets probably get shut down, but if you have $5 corn contracted, I imagine someone will be coming for it.

Not the scenarios I enjoy living in.

I will take the mean tweets back any day.

Honored Advisor

Re: The Nickel: Soybean carryover

well I've passed it up so far.

Had chance to sell $16.82 beans this AM.

Bunge Council Bluffs, 105 miles.

40 miles farther than ADM, 35c better basis. About $300 more for 40 miles.

Wonder if I look in a mirror all I'll see is stupid?

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