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Re: The bearish marketplace

The politics are the most unknowable part.


If, for instance, as I suggest, there was a huge stimulative push, then Ag would probably get a piece of it because the lobby has a permanent place in line.


Of course that is the problem with gubmint action- the assumption is that the money would be doled out somewhat rationally which of course isn't the case.


Take cellulosic ethanol where so far we'd have been ahead to just (as Keynes mused) give people shovels and pay them to go around and dig holes. There probably are some places where ag could contribute I just don't think cellolosic ETOH it but it already has a lobby established. (BTW as per one current food fight at the zoo, wind and solar come out much better, whatever their limits).


Back to the top- a strategic retreat staged somewhat earlier would have been wise in some cases. But as the wise old guy told me, stay on the government farming train because they're going to keep most of us in business.

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: The bearish marketplace

Nox, if we are going to ride the Keynesian gelding as monetary policy, you can`t be such a inflation-phobe, a little bit of inflation is necessary to make that scheme work.  John Deere is laying off, Creighton University Ernie Goss, tells of a tough couple quarters at least for small rural communities dependent on farmer buying. 


Agriculture is a small fish in a big pond compared to the general economy and I hate to say this out loud, but i`m afraid this "lowering C.O.P" we all talk about will quickly start focusing on land expense.  Landowners with be expected to carry the farm economy on their backs ie $1500 land selling prices and $100 rents and such.  Land costs have been the teflon, 800lb gorilla in the room.


The general economy must be "good enough" if you turn a blindeye to national debt, those out of labor force, food stamps ect that Ol` Yeller can have a hawkish federal reserve...she doesn`t appear to be a farmer friendly fed chairperson...think Paul Volker all you oldtimers out there.


But with the rest of the world in recession there are few to bail us out and more want us to buy and bail them out.  At some point this "spend yourself rich" service based economy will have to slow down.  That is when TPTB will have to ask themselves, "which is the greater evil a depression or inflation?"  I mean, in a depression there`s no bread on the shelves, in inflation there`s bread on the shelves it`s just you need a wheelbarrow to buy it.


Here`s a Zero Hedge piece on "Helicopter money"

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Re: The bearish marketplace

Already a lot of bleached bones in the desert just shy of the inflation mirage.


There's the world as we'd like it to be and the one you enter in the morning when you boot the computer and look at the charts. As much as possible, never the twain should meet.


The Fed obsession is wildly excessive. For people who badly wanted the US to fail on Obama's watch then sure, they've been part of holding the deflationary forces at bay and staving that off for at least 7/8ths of the term.


Which as I say, in the real world was a gift of 7 years to prepare.


I'm not directing this at you but anyway, I can't think of the author of the quote to the effect of "the mark of first class minds is the ability to hold onto two diametrically opposed ideas at the same time."


As I've said about people need to be careful to not hurt themselves- it is better to limit oneself to thinking about the world as it is than to get lost in all the ideological political folderol where, for the most part, people either don't know squat or are simply fronting for some agenda.


Probably harder to do in Iowa where the Bozo Show is a quadrennial year long feature.





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Honored Advisor

Re: The bearish marketplace

Bruce thanks for the interesting read.  Well written.......Quote "Mainstream western media are no more likely to tell you what’s real than Chinese state media are."   I am not plugging the source, I am not familiar with it... just saying it is well written 




A great statement about land values and rents...   Staving off depression we have created a climate that sucks the life out of net worth.  Be it cash savings, investments and of course land.  The next few years are going to be very interesting ......


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