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The buck, and other things

Pretty nice shot up in the dollar this morning off of ECB rate comments (and more importantly, Goldman put out the call to exit their long euro- lol).

 

In all fairness, wtill a ways from being able to call a low in the buck- still need DX above around 74.35, equivalent for euro is around 144.50. A ways away yet.

 

But the short dollar/long-everything-but-the-kitchen-sink trade does feel a little moldy.

 

It is excuciatingly difficult to incorporate globel monetry mayhem into one's view of the market but it must be taken into consideration. In my view we could see a long dollar recovery and risk-off trade that is just as perplexing as the recent global central bankers ramp job has been to anyone who did any selling at all.

 

Just for what it is worth- no sane person on the planet thought that the ECB was going to continue to raise rates while their economic situation deteriotated but that was the game- takeaway- this is not a game for sane people.

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8 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: The buck, and other things

The CRB index is seeing its largest 1-day drop in two years. Comodities are out of favor.

 

Mike

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Senior Contributor

Re: The buck, and other things

Mkts are not playing off the ECB, rather they are bubblish and full of  excess spec length. A crop for producers to harvest.

 

The $ swings to and fro over 5 10 20 30 yrs. There is no correlation vs trade, i-rates or growth rates. SEE SF Fed study.

 

Bobbi/Billy Connecticut are ay long commodity indexes but can’t consume the W C S LC FC SI CL HOP HR CC KC,

Thus once burst, out they command down they go.

 

Palouser is upside down be THRILLED crazed specs have, had wheat 2$ above intrinsic.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: The buck, and other things

Arti so in your mind nothing is correlated to anything so we can have whatever outcome you want in Never never land? Is that right?  Come on you got to see there is some big fingers on the scale here. 

 

Are you purely fundamentalists or a tech trader?  Yea specs get harvested but farmers are gettting tired of everybody getting a payday off their hard work!

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Re: The buck, and other things

A lot of those leveraged trades are being finded off of dollar and yen carry trades.

 

Sometimes free money isn't free, all a question of what you do with it.

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Senior Contributor

Re: The buck, and other things

Interewsting,  harvest excess length that over revs market prices.

 

Skinned and aboiut to be cleaned the way it looks.

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Advisor

Re: The buck, and other things

   The business news states Greece is thinking of leaving the Euro therefore giving strength to the dollar.   Greece owes quite  few euros to Germany which would cause quite a  commotion over there if they do leave the euro system.

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Senior Contributor

Re: The buck, and other things

i would think greece lving the EURO is a positive for the euro

shed weak sister.

 

greek debt holders will be writing some % off, but i thinki the mkt well knows that.

 

people don't like the $    GOOD<<<<<< eventually we will see a long move the other way

= to its whole history

 

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Advisor

Re: The buck, and other things

   From what they were saying, Germany is a major holder of Grece's debt and a major supporter of the euro.   So if Greece repays it's debt with a non euro currency it will devalue the euro.   It's too complicated of a predicament for me to get my arms around, just reporting what I heard.

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