The case for $15 beans

[Red Steele]

if the trade thinks that the unplanted corn acres are going to go into late planted soybeans, they may need to get out the calculator. I have a small area of corn , 20 acres , that is underwater right now, and even if it is plantable by mid June, I will pass. My guarantee on prevented planted corn is only $14 an acre less than the full guarantee on soybeans, and I still would be out the soybean seed, chemical, planting cost, harvesting costs, fertility credits, etc. Makes it pretty much a no-brainer.

Corn to soybean ratio has been out of whack for quite a while now, and this would favor the disappearence of soybeans. With the prices of silver and gold, soybeans actually seem pretty cheap right now and I would suspect by the end of summer we will see a pretty good rally. Maybe even sooner.

Have at it.

[cornhead64]

I have to agree, especially with all the inflation that is not really being reported, coupled with some nice $125-$150 dollar oil. 

Even if I could switch over, I would not expect the kind of bean yields that could happen on a normal year.

How are the crops (beans)  holding up in the tornado areas.  I always thought there were pretty good bean yields, and you take the tornadoes, with wet ground, and all the flooding, what kind of numbers can you guys expect ?

BTW, with the nice rally, i would like to sell some new crop, but will I actually get a crop ?

[patriot3031376]

Right on. I am in a serious world of hurt here with another 5.4" of rain so far this week. I finally had to sit down and come up with a plan B. I was shocked to see how poorly 38 bushel (my June 10 planting date yield estimate) stacked up to pp corn. I plan to maximize my eligible pp corn acres per county and switch very few acres over to beans. I will probably plant some corn past the 5th but very select fields. It would take $15 beans for me to even consider planting them.

[jrsiajdranch]

Patriot not to be nosey but hows the dairy gonna be set up for feed?

[BA Deere]

You`d think all prices would been quite abit higher considering that we thought trend +1 yields and every acre possible planted.  If I was the `market` I`d jump prices for a bigger carrot than prevent plant. $8 corn $15 beans might be the remedy for real nutty prices 4 monthes from now.  With the crazy rents paid and irrationally exuberant forward selling at lower prices, how will this set up farm finances given the crappy weather. I just hope things straighten out from here on.

[teaspoon73]

          Deere you hit the nail on the head here.  Alot of farmers aren't going to take the added risk for a smaller bean crop when the gauenteed money is there. Besides if its to wet now and raining do you really think everyone is going to run out and mud it in 8 to 10 days from now. You've already lost over 2 million corn acres in the Dakotas. Alot more Sring wheat and oat acres, now the boys in Minneapolis are realizing its the same way in Canada so there plan B of shipping it in is running down the creek.. There are alot of big boys short trying to put a spin on this. If you have feed needs lock in a phisical product. Thats what the commercals are doing. raining in the Dakotas this morning.

[patriot3031376]

Thats not nosey at all jr. We have plans to plant around 800 acres of our silage corn yet to get us through. I had never considered it a threat to not get silage corn planted until this spring. I would hope that we have a couple of days in the next month to get it done. I am really glad for you that the milk prices have rallied so far so fast. We needed that. Our next hurdle is haylage. Your picture got me pumped for it but we are at least 10 days off because of wetness and delayed maturity. Not much weevil here yet. Our lagoons have plenty of room yet but there is talk of several large Ohio dairies in trouble. They need to apply now!

[Pupdaddy]

Patriot..if you get in trouble getting enough corn in for silage...you might want to look into some of that Pro-ton silage mix that my seed company (and I assume several others) are putting out. It can be planted up to and after wheat harvest..and still produces a very palatable and high protein feed.