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Advisor

The challenge of the next decade

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/10/25/death-knell-fossil-fuels-iea-claims-offshore-wind-ca...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/10/29/huge-battery-investments-drop-energy-storage-cos...

Liquid fuel use is going to flatten out and then begin to decline- and drop sharply at some point. Ethanol lobby is going to have to get ahead of the curve in order to keep blend rates rising and just maintain volumes.

Although we've already seen who is the senior interest in this administration.

Good news is the US is behind in the game, by intention. I guess in some ways a good enough reason for farmers to be committed members of the buggywhip lobby.

But as far as economic competiveness and growth, too bad we've put ourselves behind Europe and China.

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46 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

Currently,  fossil  coal's  order  of  business  seems  to  be   filing  asset  protection  through  Chapter  re-organization,  with  political  ramblings  going  un-mentioned  -  -  -

      

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Honored Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

Well, "batteries" are a economic loser unless you buy into the global warming hoax and figure your profits are from "saaaaaaving the wooooorld".    If you don`t fall for that crap, fill up with #2 diesel and save real money.

But you figure it`s diesel mining equipment mining the rare metals for batteries, diesel trains and cranes carrying and lifting the 200 foot windmill blades and government subsidies that make "green energy" go.   But look at ethanol, a corn crop is raised below cost of production to make ethanol (requiring subsidies in some cases) the tractors and combines that raise it aren`t run on ethanol, the semis sitting in line at the E-plant with corn are idling on diesel...I`m pro ethanol and realize that the millions of passenger cars run on it and it cuts the smog in their cities and we all agree that`s a good thing.  But I don`t see John Deere coming out with a S790 combine that runs on E-85 anytime soon.

But all this hype of the US being "behind the curve on batteries" Elon Musk built a cottage industry sucking government subsidies for his Tesla...yeah they`re cool, but try and sell a used one.

And battery technology like at VCRs whatever happened to the BetaMax?  Heck whatever happened to DVDs and video rental stores? The way technology changes, sometimes you`re better off letting some other pioneer take the arrows for you.  Anyone want to buy a 1980 VCR tape of the Movie Rocky?  Paid $80...i`ll let you have it for only $70.   Smiley Happy

 

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Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

$87/kWh by 2025?  Be still, my beating heart. 

Average US consumer uses about 897 kWh of electricity per month....so your electric bill in 2025 will only be $78,039 per month.  YEEHAW!!! 

Used to be new and advanced technology made everybody richer, not poorer.   (oh crap, I forgot -- Democrats don't believe in wealth for us regular folks.)

===

And the REAL challenge of the next decade is to figure out what to do with all those huge, currently NON-RECYCLABLE Windmill blades -- other than tossing them into landfills like they do now.  50,000 tons of these blades are expected to be dumped into landfills between 2018 and 2020.  #GoGreenHypocrites

https://cowboystatedaily.com/2019/08/07/wind-turbine-blades-being-disposed-of-in-casper-landfill/

https://www.livingcircular.veolia.com/en/industry/how-can-wind-turbine-blades-be-recycled

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P.S.   BA:  We still have a fully-functioning chain video store in our town .... they own hundreds of these stores ... so hope springs eternal.  Smiley Wink

 

 

Honored Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

huge battery investments drop energy storage costs.........    thats rich........ fodder for the irrational.

Honored Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

The sickening reality emerges and is in discussion on investment programs this morning.  In order to regain leadership positions and power,  the democratic candidates need the US economy to collapse.  

Can they accomplish this in time?   ------ fighting hard for failure .... so the smart folks can win and save the "climate"........ creating disaster to save disaster......... we must be at the end.

Plant19, harvest19, then an election year.............. Thank you for the internet....... it has been such a wonderful political tool.... Smiley Happy 

Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

This #Green thing just keeps getting better and better ... look at what it takes to build ONE WIND TURBINE!!

"Building one wind turbine requires 900 tons of steel, 2,500 tons of concrete and 45 tons of plastic."

Article first appeared in the Wall Street Journal:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-you-want-renewable-energy-get-ready-to-dig-11565045328

but here's a link to the same story at a "don't have to pay to read" site:

https://www.wind-watch.org/news/2019/08/07/if-you-want-renewable-energy-get-ready-to-dig/

==========

AND THE "BEST PART" IS THAT WINDMILL OLD-PANEL DISPOSAL WASTE BY 2050 IS EXPECTED TO BE DOUBLE THE TONNAGE OF TODAY'S PLASTIC WASTE!!!!

Advisor

Re: Are you miss-understanding the difference between....

Are you miss-understanding the difference between installed capacity and the cost per unit energy?

  $100 per Kwh capacity is consider the point where electric is cost competitive with internal combustion engines.   VW announced a few weeks ago that all their new electric models would meet that threshold.  $87 per Kwh installed capacity blows the socks off liquid fuels.

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Advisor

Re: The scrap price for lithium cobalt batteies is ....

The current scrap price for lithium cobalt batteries, any size from cell phone to  electric vehicle size is $2.50 per lb.

  That compares to $1.27 for bright bare copper.

A new battery for our Volt is $5000 with the core (shipping included), the core deposit is $2500 so I guess the core  is worth $2500.

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: The scrap price for lithium cobalt batteies is ....

That end of the elec problem is far easier to generate positive numbers for.

Electrical generation and transmission is far more difficult to rationalize.