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Senior Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

It  takes  0.40  gallons  of  crude  to  make  a  lb.  of  plastic   -  ironically  -  -  -

Peak Energy  claims  900  tons  of  materials   =  1  mill     

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Senior Advisor

Re: Generation and transmission, difficult to rationalize?

You mean like when I park my electric vehicle next to the barn, plug it in and come back a couple hours later and drive a way with a full charge that didn't  cost me anything because I'm selling my surplus to the power company?

  You mean like when my solar electric is amortized  at 5 cents per Kwh and my transportation is 1.25 cents per mile compared to the 7.5 cents per mile for gasoline?

   You mean like when I sell my daytime electricity to the power company for 6 cents per Kwh and buy back an equivalent amount a night for 2.6 cents per Kwh?

  Somehow that's not so hard for me to rationalize.

  Some of you fellows just got to get off the farm more.

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Senior Advisor

Re: The scrap price for lithium cobalt batteies is ....

BTW, despite a century and a half of exquisite tinkering and $Ts in R&D, the internal combustion engine is a pretty lousy machine- blows most of the energy out the radiator and tailpipe. Best theoretical efficiency is like 28% for a gas engine, 30 something for a diesel and those are rarely met in the real world.

Will remain the standard for certain things, like agriculture and construction, but there are far better ways to do the major applications.

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: The scrap price for lithium cobalt batteies is ....

Renewables, storage are advancing at near Moore's Law rates right now.

We can be on the train or we can continue to pad the pockets of the buggy whip lobby.

Lithium Ion batteris are good enough for now but there will be much better batteries- a far greater world of science to harness than just figuring out how to squeeze 1% more out of an IC engine.

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Generation and transmission, difficult to rationalize?

If you're doing so great selling electricity, why do you even bother growing corn or soybeans?  Why not just turn all your acres into one great big solar farm and make all your dreams come true?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

 

Actually,  places like China will be steadily using more and more Ethanol. 

And beans too will be very limited supply as comped to demand Needs. 

Grain makes into people food thru feeding and other processes. 

People Globally are going to eat better and better diets. 

Thee Afore,  All takes more and more grain. 

Look at the prices of grains today. 

.then Quadruple the current prices and you'll start to see the True Picture.  MO. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

When electric cars are cheaper to run and can reliably drive from Fargo to Duluth down to Albert lea and back to Fargo on a -20°F day in January, you`ll see them all over the place.  

Right now I can buy a used Chevy Impala flex fuel for $15,000 and it`ll get in the high 20`s for mileage.  Not touch the engine or transmission, just change oil and tires and brake pads and put 200,000 miles on it....now that`s cheap reliable transportation!

 

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-09-25/tesla-police-car-lost-battery-while-on-duty-in-t...

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Honored Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

Yes theory is easy and if you spend enough you can make it work for only those who can afford it, and live in good climate and make short trips and don't carry loads ..... electric fire trucks in California aren't keeping up.  When will tesla produce its first 4x4 tractor with 12 hours of 300 hp energy that can refuel in 20 minutes for the night shift.  When will the first california congress woman fly over in an electric passenger jet that doesn't have to set down in the midwest?

Enough government money can't be the problem...... it should all be easy with the feds guaranteeing personal wealth in reward beyond the dreams of the real tesla.  And so far we haven't seen a thing produced that hasn't been done before.  We are talking about batteries like it was 1919.  And the same problems that doomed electricity back then when they had large market share are still present...... 

And we avoid the real subject the promoters of elec will not address........ the changes in lifestyle that will be needed to live in a world without fossil fuels... 

Let's use california as a test society first.......... let them live without fossil fuels for even 1 year and see where we are.... they have all the advantages of hydro electrical generation that most states do not have.  Don't unload at a port without electric ships...... don't distribute goods without an electric truck --------- it is the perfect test case ....... and the folks who are not sleeping on the streets all favor it.--- and stop those airlines flying overhead burning all that fuel to get those clean energy folks to work in DC.

It can be done.  It could have been done a century ago.  But not economically for those who with low income.   That remains the issue.   But acceptance of electric propultion ------that is not the goal here... is it?    What progressives really want is to have and eat  things the masses will never afford and  maintaining the power to tell those beneath them how to live and be forced to pay for the rich indulgences.  It has far more to do with who controls the people than what is good for the planet.... Which is not endangered..... but the people living on it are very much in danger.

Electricity as elon promote it, fails the social test...... It needs........... 1.  other peoples money in huge terms.  2. Another source of power to generate consistant product/ or massive new generation capability.  3.  Changes in the law to allow it to pass safety standards, waste disposal standards, and mining standards in the US.  Costs that are never included in the equation.  The best guess hope for its acceptance and use is maybe 25% of energy use....... and control of congress.

And remember we have to ignore the cost of generation of electricity to keep the use of electricity affordable.  You cant mine it, refine it, or store it in large quantities.  Can't hedge the cost of it on a futures board.   We have to force our neighbors to pay for the generation at a public utility which will never compete for costs.   The quotes here are nonsense...... Our local (florida based) in kansas wind farm quotes costs of generation on 100% generating capability as most do,  actual production year after year comes in at 25 to 30% of capacity .  That means that the developmnet costs alone run 3 to 4 times what is quoted.  

If it were better ---- we wouldn't need to finance its production,  wouldn't need to convince.  ------ Truth is there are massive costs ahead in infrastructure development ---- and only one choice in developing new generation of electricity. The only electrical generation that is efficient, cost effective, and not fossil fuel based, is nuclear ---- California already said no to that.    Almost every society on the planet that is progressively promoted uses nuclear electrical generation.  

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Honored Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

Negative Interest rates cause an over-supply of everything. Too cheap not to do it. 

A 780 acre solar farm is coming to our area. It is by far the best use of the land, rent of >$700/acre per year. You can say it is not economic, but it really is, after the gov incentives. And, don't go off on that, Ag gets Bil of Gov incentives every year, so no wonder grains are too cheap.

Solar is so much better than wind, not sure why anyone would ever put up a big turbine, just stupid, but again, until the feds change the incentives, more will probably go up. The solar farm here makes tremendous sense, especially when the next gen technology will capture energy even after the sun goes down. It certainly makes more sense in the desert SW, but still it beats houses or corn in central Indiana. just fwiw.

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Senior Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

Don't know what the incentives are on that project- if they were there I'd take 'em- like farming- but an engineer showed me a solar project he's working on that comes in at 4.5c/kWHr- and that works anywhere.

Shame is that they are Chinese cells since the buggywhip lobby runs the USA. We were throwing money at stuff like cellulosic ethanol. Picked a real winner there but it was an essential fiction to sell grain ethanol.

Speaking of free money and such, the frack revolution is an excellent example of that- mostly subprime but they can borrow reasonably since there's a panic for yield. Still a money pit but has burned hundreds of $Bs and far from over.

In the Great State of Ohio they put a surcharge on utility customers to subsidize the coal and nuke plants that can't compete with renewables.

BTW, in Germany they run sheep under the panels- cheap maintenance and good performance. Goats don't work- they climb and chew on stuff.

BTW also as far as the comment about China as a customer for ethanol- yes, I think so. But like soybeans, they'll prefer to buy corn and do the brewing themselves. Which is all the same to me although would be a disappointment for e-plant owners.

 

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