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Honored Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

We`re moving towards renewables quicker than anyone I`ll bet.  The thing is at $50 oil there`s a shortage, at $80 there`s a surplus.  If we were running out ANYTIME soon, the oil companies would be the last one`s giving us a gifthorse of $60 oil.  

They`d be like Martin Shkreli who raised drug prices 1,000%

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/martin-shkreli-who-raised-drug-prices-from-13-50-to-750-a...  

So, nobody jump off any bridges in panic that we`re running out of oil.

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Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

Everything I wrote is reasonably true.

But when you get drawn into the denial cult you generally don't know where to stop- it is a endless rabbit tunnel.

Time is an intelligent guy but also in business to provide advice so he neded th throw the "subsidy" thing in to maintain his cred with his followers.

We subsidize fossil fuels magnanimously before even accounting for the massive externalities they throw off.

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Senior Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

I do not recall any objections to the startup subsidies for ethanol, or the mandate (which I support, the recent treachery noted, although I always criticized the scope).

Our (sometimes former) dominance in aerospace, computers, the internet were a product of public startup inventment that just happened to be a part of a greater urgency.

We were chasing politically expedient stuff like cellulosic ethanol (an historic public policy fail) wile wind and solar were being scaled into being very cost effective.

We are behind, on account of the buggywhip lobby and the vast legions of its cult.

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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

Present proven fact and you got no problem with me .......  even the 4.5 figure is a creation of projection of future capability.   It still has to face the reality of no storage..... this is why the 4.5 projections turned into 9 to 12 cent realities for our wind.  They just cannot operate at full capacity.  In theory yes but in reality it is not proven true so far.

 

I am not calling you a lier intentionally.  But most of what is published is based on optimal use. and not actual operation. It projects small localized test results to mass use without addressing the problems of mass storage and distribution.  The infrastructure cost ahead of us is massive and they all leave that out as they "sell the theory as fact".  And I cannot imagine the world giving up cheap world wide transportation that fossil fuels provide.... the lifestyle changes needed to stop using fossil fuels--- not even california can figure out how to do it with their "unlimited resources mentality" 

And a lot of what is believed about fossil fuels is purpose generated theory as well.   We are masters of misinformation.

misinformation -- example....  Fossil fuels have stabilized the middle east region of the world for over 50 years now.  Compared to its history prior to mass oil production that statement is true... probably the most unstable region of the world for thousands of years.   Yet the anti oil movement (a very recent phenomenon ) says the opposite oil is destabilizing........... these positions are both true.  But only half truth,  so both are a lie, like a seed corn advertisement. Not something you believe until the theory is proven.

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Senior Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

Once people decide that tyey're smarter than the 98% of people who study climate their minds are free to wander most anywhere.

And wander they have- that's a central theme fused into the weirdness of the present moment.

 

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Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

Weirdness on steroids- "oil has stabilized the Middle East for the last 50 years."

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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

It is too bad that we have to question what we read so completely.  Our leaders, our publishers, and our universities................. and of course private corporate business.  And then there are those judges that seem to want to rewrite science for us all.

Some points that are totally .........theory....IMO........lame observation.  Empty thoughts.

Oil........ our source of water..... not below ground but our rainfall sw comes from the gulf.  In 2010 we skimmed the gulf with who knows how much crude oil...... I don't trust BP or the US government's figures....all are extemates to feed the press who will print anything with impunity........It was in my mind when I began writing about the wrath of drought which began less than a month after the best wheat crop we have ever harvested following the wet fall and winter of 2010 -- Sept began the drought here that lasted until it ran its course somewhere in the eastern cornbelt in late 2012............ I got no proof of connection nor do I claim to know anything ---- I came away from that believing that bureaucrats, media, and private business create photo opportunities to clean a bird or a turtle......at Best.    And without knowing it for a fact......... strengthened my belief that the earth's systems clean themselves over time-------shorter-------- we create problems = the global systems clean them up.  Still theory at this point.  But my bet is on the earth to survive longer than humans...especially these humans. 

Solar houses....... If you look for rental property houses.... a good roof is essential...   If you have one out of three with solar panels on the roof is it worth more??  Will you pay more for it??   I am looking at one now to move to a new location.  Decent and probably I'll get it for salvage price.  It has to be moved or destroyed.   I won't even price an upgrade to the solar.  Ill strip it off, add insulation, and a roof that will take some beating... knowing the value will go up in the process.  

Solar ---- I think the biggest drawback of solar is its destruction of the surface of the earth....a cost we don't count.  Times example pays $700 per acre...... rent.  How many  rent chickens are we gonna count?  Like a cell phone the system will be out of date within the first 4 years.  Like energy leases across the board, the lease will move on to the salvage energy company after the development energy company sells out.  After the last energy company goes under and there is no utility "plug in" it goes back to the owner to enjoy.  Solars hasnt got a great history of a working model long term ----- their technology changes are faster than oil.    Mean while, development co. builds a new style one down the road and discards yours.

Surface of decent farmable land with better than 25 inches of rainfall may be rarer than oil deposits to 8 billion humans.  Not letting it grow things of feed food sources might be the least earth(or human) friendly thing we can do.  And very short sighted in a tech world that throws its ideas away as soon as the next idea comes along.

ethanol........ I been questioning all along as an energy alternative..  I love the byproducts for feeders .... jury is still out on it helping corn prices....... as an additive to replace the last bad idea in additives it was a good move.... But I am not an advocate for replacing gasoline .......... and it is still oil and water..... 

I have this abengoa energy cellulosic plant down the road as a monument to political white elephants --- and billy boy presidentially promoted "university research".  I have personally blended up to 1/3 as long as it is used in a timely manner.  At 85% it is better, but the blends between 1/3 and 3/4 are hard to keep in suspension..... it can't be transported in a pipeline and stay in solution.  Energy wise ????????

 


 

Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

Well the climate does change, CLIMATE CHANGE IS A FACT, 10,000 years ago where I am typing now was under a 1 mile sleet of ice...the climate did change and I`m glad of that fact   Smiley Happy

Here is the problem "figures don`t lie but liars figure" ...well, liars put thermometers in places where they record a higher temperature just to "prove" their narrative.  Why do the liar`s "solution" ALWAYS involve ME of lowering MY standard of living???  I`m sick of winters, if Iowa gets warmer because of global warming....I don`t care.  If crop yields are lower...great! then prices will be better.  And who`s to say it isn`t "already too late"?  We could do the stupid lowering our standards of living and still be "doomed".

Those 98% of scientists that are worry warts about climate change ought to go to China and preach.  And one more thing scientific fact isn`t derived by majority consensus...98% can be wrong and 2% is right....which usually is the case.   98% of experts told us there were WMDs in Iraq...just sayin`.

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Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

The man made global warming crowd are the new flat earth society. They also believe Bruce Jenner is a girl who should participate in women's sports and then shower in their locker rooms. Pro man made global warming climate science is junk science based on how much funding they can weasel out of government. Their biggest concern at the present is how to hide the cooling. If their science was real Barack Obama wouldn't have just purchased his new beach front home in Martha's Vineyard. Stick on a 42% sales tax for free health care and then add another huge increase for free college and a man made global warming climate tax and then see what that does to an economy. The people living in Valenzuela will feel lucky to be where they are.

Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: The challenge of the next decade

Ok, I am just not smart enough to keep up with you SDH and Ricky, what is the buggy whip lobby? Be specific.

We are behind who? China...funny...it is 1929 in China...they are going down hard and we will see if war is avoided, I doubt it. Xi is all about Xi, read his latest "morality rules". We aren't behind them. Europe, maybe they are more bankrupt that we are, which is bankrupt x 4 already.