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Senior Advisor

The confused Southern Plains situation

I have come across many stories, evaluations and evidence of the situation and can't get a good picture of it yet. I'm convinced there are widespread issues with drought and freeze but quantifying the extent and limits of the effects is impossible at this point. How far north are the severe drought areas (where the wheat definitely is VERY affected), what is the overlap of frost and drought, and what is a decent estimation of the extent of the latest feeze events that I've heard good evidence for definite yield effecting damage?

 

I'm convinced there is a lot of damage but I certainly an't quantify the extent in any way. Perhaps only time will tell. Would love to see a location where extension agents could post their findings. It would be a good reference. The Southeast has a good letter - Owen Taylor's 'Agfax'.

 

 

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9 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: The confused Southern Plains situation

the pics and anecdotes on here + the green-ness maps have been pretty telling to me.

 

was a cty in n central Ka - guy reported 30% winterkill (before last freeze) & sw commented the area as usually being on the highest yielding ac----"some of the best ground" or something to that effect.

 

i have a synthetic, empirical sense it's at least a 7-10 yr out-lyer if not bigger timeframe as far as low end of prod.

 

i mean on the cond rating chart - been posted a couple of times (only 5 yrs) this yr a COMPLETE THROW OUT statistically...you don't see ge from 60+ to 30's over winter.

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Senior Advisor

Re: The confused Southern Plains situation

All good points.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: The confused Southern Plains situation

guess Hobby took off his post....but he pretty well confirmed that it's bad - dryland west will be doing good to get 10 bpa-nw Ka 30.

 

thing i'm a tad confounded about is CME lowering limit to 45 sents?---i get the bean raise to 100 and corn 5 cent lower.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: The confused Southern Plains situation-green/contrast

order of 2014/week 14, 2014/week 16(this wk) = 2 week interval, 2013/week 16. not much improve, esp in N Tx.

 

star14-14.gifstar 14-16.PNGstar 13-16.PNG

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Veteran Advisor

Re: The confused Southern Plains situation-green/contrast

...and green-ness matters are worse compared to a yr ago - than they were 2 weeks ago as can be seen by the increased density of brown-ness. 2 weeks ago - first map. Technically, they call it - "VEG HEALTH." strangely, the ENTIRE belt looks worse...Ky, Tn, entire south, even e Ne, the I-states???

 

veg health contrast 14.gifveg health contrast 16.gif

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Veteran Contributor

Re: The confused Southern Plains situation-green/contrast

Very interesting maps cx.  This is actual hard data which is valuable. 

However I have to wonder if the "market" already knows this?  In other words, is this information priced in?  That is what I always have a difficult time trying to figure out.  Given that the information is publicly available to anyone willing to look, I would tend to think it is.  On the other hand (NO- I'm not an economist!) I have seen times when it seems the "market" has a delayed reaction, showing it's a very long distance between the field and the floor.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: The confused Southern Plains situation-green/contrast

FWIW, and maybe he could chime in again on the matter---

 

Palouser has mostly said the futures markets are a lagging indicator of actual economics -- this makes "futures" a misnomer, ey?

 

i'm confused, however on lowering wheat limit???...and not by increasing soy------------

 

the veg health maps really have my attn......complete wondering here, but could there be a deeper - more ominous thing going on with the soil----an insect-----worse----the radiation from Japan?????????????

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Veteran Contributor

Re: The confused Southern Plains situation-green/contrast

Oh, by the way, its spelled "eh"! Smiley LOL

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Veteran Advisor

Re: The confused Southern Plains situation

Here is what I have to say (oh yes in a severe
Thunderstorm watch right now)
1. There will be a wheat crop, the size and
Quality will be in question.
2. Alot of what I've seen depends on cropping
Method, no till vs conventional.
3. In ks.....I believe the north east will
have normal or better. From my travels
East of 81 highway, north of i-70.
4. I believe most wheat will go "full term",
Due to economics. Yes you can look at
Now and adjustment, but most companies
Will not total. There is a way to distort
And get part of your money and plant
Another crop, but one agent told me they
Will never pay for 2 loses in 1 field in one
Year.....additionally, would you try to
Plant a crop/feet/spray for a crop now in
Failed wheat....when no moisture.
5. Extension....don't plan on it too soon. Several years ago extension leadership
Said some things, which were market movers,
and they were "reminded" of their job
discription. The word whent out from
Upon high.....no news of that matter, you
Just use the canned material.
6. Vegatative index.....one of the newest
Gambling tools.....yes you can buy chances
On it (insurance)
It is a far more complex thing than you think.
7. As Kermit the frog said "its not easy being green." It sounds simple but not...depends
On the stage of the crop, health of the crop
(That alters the color (( wavelength frequently)). Then there is cloud cover, atomsp
conditions, temp, angle onwhich photo
Taken, time photo taken...
Alot of factors.
Several universities have been researching
"Remote monitoring "





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